What Did North Korea Aim for by Releasing the 'Military Operation Against South Korea' Log?

Intent to justify provocation and strengthen internal unity
JCS denies claims of strike near Ulsan coast: "Not true"

Korean Central News Agency announcement on the 7th [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] North Korea claimed to have carried out an overwhelming military operation against South Korea in response to the South Korea-U.S. joint air exercise 'Vigilant Storm.' They disclosed detailed daily strike targets, which is interpreted as an attempt to justify military provocations and demonstrate their determination not to fall behind South Korea and the U.S.

However, regarding North Korea's exaggerated claim that they struck the waters off Ulsan with cruise missiles, the Joint Chiefs of Staff dismissed it as "not true." There are ongoing concerns about further provocations, along with forecasts that North Korea may enter a period of pause to weigh the timing of a nuclear test.

According to the Korean Central News Agency on the 7th, the North Korean General Staff stated, "To demonstrate clear confidence in the military capabilities of the Republic's armed forces and to bolster the firm retaliatory will of our soldiers with a victorious spirit, we conducted a counter military operation from November 2 to 5."

North Korea revealed the daily operation details, claiming to have struck South Korea's air force bases in the West Sea or conducted missile test launches to paralyze the operational command system. On the first day of the operation (the 2nd), they said, "Missile units in the Pyonganbuk-do region simulated strikes on enemy air force bases and launched four tactical ballistic missiles targeting an unmanned island in front of the West Sea Lock Gate (omitted). In the morning and afternoon, air defense missile units along the east and west coasts fired 23 surface-to-air missiles (omitted)," explaining in this manner.

At that time, North Korea fired ballistic missiles south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the East Sea for the first time since the division, and the military dispatched F-15K and KF-16 fighter jets to fire three air-to-ground missiles into international waters north of the NLL. North Korea claimed, "The enemy provocatively claimed that our missiles landed near South Korea's 'territorial waters' and responded with counterfire in our international waters," adding, "From the Hamgyongbuk-do region, we retaliated by striking two strategic cruise missiles into international waters about 80 km off the coast of Ulsan City, South Korea, at a range of 590.5 km."

However, regarding the claim of launching cruise missiles into international waters off Ulsan City, a Joint Chiefs of Staff official stated, "Based on detection and analysis by South Korea-U.S. surveillance and reconnaissance assets, North Korea's claim is not true," and dismissed it by saying, "Not all of North Korea's reports are factual."

Korean Central News Agency announced on the 7th [Image source=Yonhap News]

On the second day of the operation (the 3rd), North Korea insisted, "We conducted an important ballistic missile test launch to verify the operational reliability of the special function combat unit tasked with paralyzing the enemy's operational command system." This is believed to refer to an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) classified as a failure, but since they did not directly mention the ICBM, it is interpreted as an indirect admission of failure.

Additionally, on the third day of the operation (the 4th), North Korea boasted of deploying about 500 various fighter jets, which is somewhat exaggerated. The military tracked only about 180 aircraft on that day, and one fighter jet can leave multiple tracks if it repeatedly takes off and lands. Therefore, the photos and claims released by North Korea are presumed to be inflated, intended to showcase and threaten their military power to South Korea and the U.S.

Notably, North Korea extensively reported these details in the Rodong Sinmun, combining internal propaganda with external announcements. This marks a difference from previous military provocations, which were only disclosed externally. It is analyzed as an effort to strengthen internal unity and military discipline by portraying a strong response to external threats.

Starting from this day until the 10th, our military will conduct the four-day '22 Taeguk Exercise.' This is a defensive command post exercise assuming North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, conducted as a war game such as a computer simulation (CPX) without troop or equipment mobilization.

Amid concerns about further provocations under the pretext of ongoing exercises, North Korea is expected to weigh the timing of an ICBM re-launch or a seventh nuclear test. However, some view North Korea's disclosure of such a log after the completion of the South Korea-U.S. joint exercises as an indirect message that there will be no military response unless U.S. strategic assets are deployed on the Korean Peninsula.

Professor Park Won-gon of Ewha Womans University’s Department of North Korean Studies said, "North Korea's exaggerated and inflated announcements are intended to internally embellish their response and externally boast that they possess military power not inferior to South Korea and the U.S. Since this has already been frequently mentioned internationally, the possibility of a nuclear test timed for the U.S. midterm elections has decreased, but continuous provocations and nuclear tests remain possible at any time," he predicted.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.