What Has Changed in the SCM Joint Statement Warning of the 'End of the Kim Jong-un Regime'?

South Korea-US Defense Ministers Hold SCM... "End of Kim Regime"
"Deploy Strategic Assets on Korean Peninsula at Permanent Level"
Rapidly Changed Inter-Korean Relations Over One Year Fully Reflected
Stronger and More Specific Than September EDSCG Joint Statement

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin have announced a "completely different and stronger response" to North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. The joint statement issued after the 54th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) between South Korea and the U.S. includes a policy to strengthen the deployment of U.S. strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula to a level equivalent to 'permanent deployment,' along with a strong warning message of the "end of the Kim Jong-un regime."

This joint statement, derived amid North Korea's recent consecutive provocations, reflects the significantly changed inter-Korean relations and international situation within just one year. Unlike the Moon Jae-in administration, which was passive about joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises while pursuing a 'declaration of the end of the war,' the need to expand joint exercises to respond to North Korea's threats was emphasized. Furthermore, compared to the joint statement from the high-level Extended Deterrence Strategy Committee (EDSCG) in September, more concrete measures to enhance the execution of extended deterrence were specified.

Strengthening Extended Deterrence with U.S. Strategic Assets at a Level Equivalent to 'Permanent Deployment'

Korea-US Alliance Graphic [Image Source=Yonhap News]

On the 3rd (local time), Defense Minister Lee and Secretary Austin held the 54th SCM at the Pentagon and announced a 19-article joint statement. The two defense ministers agreed to continuously seek new measures to strengthen deterrence against North Korea by deploying U.S. strategic assets on the Korean Peninsula in a timely and coordinated manner, at a level equivalent to 'permanent deployment,' in response to the escalating nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.

South Korea and the U.S. agreed to strengthen cooperation in four policy categories?information sharing, consultations during crises, joint planning, and joint execution?as part of a 'Korean-style extended deterrence' modeled after NATO's nuclear sharing. Through cooperation in these categories, South Korea's 'voice' in decisions regarding extended deterrence means or nuclear use is expected to be institutionalized and strengthened.

Although similar to NATO-style nuclear sharing, a critical difference is that there are no tactical nuclear weapons on South Korean territory. While this may be seen as somewhat insufficient by those supporting tactical nuclear deployment, some view it as a compromise aimed at achieving effects beyond tactical nuclear deployment without the U.S. considering South Korea's nuclear armament.

Secretary Austin stated, "We provide extended deterrence to the Republic of Korea by operating military capabilities across all categories, including nuclear, conventional, missile defense, and advanced non-nuclear capabilities." In response, Minister Lee explained, "We agreed to operate U.S. strategic assets in a way that expands the frequency and intensity of their deployment on and around the Korean Peninsula to achieve an effect equivalent to permanent deployment."

From 'Sustaining' to 'Expanding' Joint Exercises Despite North Korean Provocations

Key Points of the 54th Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) between Korea and the United States

This SCM joint statement shows clear differences from last year in several aspects. Notably, the tone regarding U.S.-South Korea joint exercises has become considerably more proactive.

Last year's joint statement only reaffirmed "the need to sustain joint exercises and training on the Korean Peninsula" and emphasized "maintaining military readiness and combined defense posture." This year, the wording was replaced with agreement on the need to expand joint exercises and training to strengthen preparedness against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. The expression changed from 'sustain' or 'maintain' to 'expand.'

Last year, the Moon Jae-in administration, which pursued a declaration of the end of the war until the end of its term, was somewhat passive about joint exercises that North Korea reacts sensitively to, and this stance was somewhat reflected. In contrast, despite North Korea's increasingly frequent military provocations this year, the inclusion of 'expanding joint exercises' in the joint statement by the two ministers is interpreted as a demonstration of determination to firmly advance the South Korea-U.S. alliance regardless of North Korea's backlash.

The language also became more resolute. The joint statement included for the first time the phrase "nuclear attack" alongside "North Korea's tactical nuclear threat," which was absent in the previous statement. In particular, Secretary Austin strongly warned, "Any nuclear attack, including non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons, against the United States, its allies, and partners will not be tolerated and will lead to the end of the Kim Jong-un regime."

References to inter-Korean agreements also changed significantly. Last year's statement devoted considerable space to explaining the significance of the 2018 Panmunjom Declaration, Pyongyang Joint Declaration, the North Korea-U.S. Singapore Summit joint statement, and the September 19 Military Agreement. It self-assessed that these measures created conditions for easing tensions and preventing accidental clashes on the Korean Peninsula. However, this year, it was briefly mentioned only once by Minister Lee Jong-seop, expressing concern over North Korea's repeated violations of the 'September 19 Military Agreement,' such as multiple rocket launcher firings.

Stronger and More Specific Than the EDSCG Joint Statement Two Months Ago

On the 3rd (local time), Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin jointly inspected the representative strategic bombers B-1B and B-52, demonstrating the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence and the strength of the ROK-U.S. alliance.
[Photo by Ministry of National Defense]

Compared to the joint statement from the high-level Extended Deterrence Strategy Committee (EDSCG) held just two months ago in September, this statement contains stronger warnings to North Korea and more concrete measures to enhance the execution of extended deterrence.

The most striking is Secretary Austin's expression that "(a nuclear attack) will lead to the end of the Kim Jong-un regime." The SCM joint statement is considered almost a 'diplomatic document' containing the settlement of current issues and a blueprint between allies. Including the phrase 'end of the regime' in such a document is read as a firm warning against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.

Also, the phrase from the EDSCG statement, "any nuclear attack by North Korea will face overwhelming and decisive response," was changed in this statement to "any nuclear attack, including North Korea's non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons, will not be tolerated." The phrase "any nuclear attack" reflects the current situation where North Korea is focusing on developing tactical nuclear weapons.

A Defense Ministry official said this clearly shows the intention to retaliate at the highest level without falling for North Korea's strategy that the U.S. would avoid nuclear use if a less powerful nuclear weapon is used.

Measures to enhance extended deterrence execution, such as information sharing, consultation procedures, joint planning, and joint execution, were also made more concrete. The two countries agreed to complete the revision of the tailored deterrence strategy (TDS) before the 55th SCM next year and to hold the extended deterrence means operation exercise (DSC TTX), which assumes North Korea's nuclear use scenarios, annually. The DSC TTX has been held only twice in the past five years.

At the EDSCG in September, the measures to enhance extended deterrence execution were limited to "closely coordinating specific measures for all possible scenarios and seeking cooperation to strengthen the alliance's strategic readiness through enhanced training and exercises, including the use of tabletop exercises (TTX)." This joint statement is evaluated to have increased specificity.

Dismissal of 'Tactical Nuclear Redeployment' Possibility... Attention on 'New Measures'

Minister Lee Jong-seop Visiting Andrews Air Force Base in the United States
[Photo by Ministry of National Defense]

Through this SCM, the two defense ministers reaffirmed the policy that "there will be no redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula." Minister Lee Jong-seop told reporters at the Pentagon, "The government is not considering the redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula," reaffirming the existing stance that "there is no change in the policy of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."

In the past, the U.S. deployed up to 700 tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula in the 1970s. However, in 1991, under the pretext of pursuing denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, especially North Korea, tactical nuclear weapons were completely withdrawn. At that time, the withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons became a prerequisite as South and North Korea agreed on the 'Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,' which now raises concerns about the ongoing calls for tactical nuclear redeployment from some political circles.

Instead, the joint statement includes the phrase "new measures to expand these measures and strengthen deterrence against North Korea's destabilizing actions," which draws attention. The Defense Ministry declined to elaborate, saying, "This is a matter currently under discussion."

Meanwhile, the SCM has been held annually since 1968 as a meeting between South Korean and U.S. defense ministers, addressing security on the Korean Peninsula and combined defense capabilities. It is conducted over a 2-night, 3-day schedule alternating between South Korea and the U.S., with attendance by the defense ministers of both countries and military leadership.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.