Israeli Prime Minister Candidate Netanyahu Leads...General Election Exit Polls

'Longest-Serving Prime Minister' Netanyahu Poised to Regain Power
Devout Zionism Party Advances...Could Become Third Largest in Assembly

(Photo by Jerusalem Post)

[Asia Economy Reporter Yujin Cho] Benjamin Netanyahu, former Prime Minister of Israel, is likely to win the Israeli general election. However, even if the anti-Netanyahu coalition collapses, the number of seats secured by Netanyahu's alliance is just barely a majority, leading to forecasts that stable governance will be difficult.

On the 1st (local time), major foreign media reported that exit polls from the Israeli general election held that day indicated a narrow victory for Prime Minister Netanyahu. Unless there is an upset in the actual vote count, Netanyahu, who was ousted 1 year and 6 months ago in June last year by the anti-Netanyahu coalition, will be able to return to power.

According to exit polls announced after voting ended by public broadcaster Kan and Channels 12 and 13, Netanyahu's right-wing bloc is expected to secure 61 to 62 seats out of the total 120 seats in the Knesset, just over the majority.

The right-wing Likud party, led by Netanyahu, is expected to secure 30 to 31 seats, while the far-right party alliance 'Religious Zionist Party,' which had only 6 seats in the March general election last year, made significant gains with 14 to 15 seats.

If the exit poll results match the actual count, the Religious Zionist Party will become the third-largest party in the Knesset and the second-largest party within the right-wing bloc.

Additionally, the ultra-Orthodox Jewish party Shas is projected to secure 10 seats, and the conservative Jewish political alliance United Torah Judaism (UTJ) is expected to gain 7 seats.

On the other hand, the bloc that participated in last year's anti-Netanyahu coalition is expected to secure only 54 to 55 seats.

The centrist Yesh Atid, led by current Prime Minister Yair Lapid, is projected to win 22 to 24 seats; the National Unity Party, led by Defense Minister Benny Gantz, 11 to 13 seats; Israel Beiteinu 4 to 5 seats; the left-wing Meretz party 4 seats; the Labor Party 5 to 6 seats; and the Arab party Ra'am 5 seats.

Netanyahu, 73 years old this year, is a representative figure of the Israeli right wing. He served as Prime Minister once from 1996 to 1999 and then again for 13 years from 2009, holding the record for the longest total tenure of 15 years and 2 months.

During his tenure as Prime Minister, he faced political instability due to a prosecution investigation over allegations that he received bribes amounting to $264,000 (approximately 300 million KRW) from famous Hollywood film producers and others.

If Netanyahu is elected, it is expected that he could use the immunity of the Prime Minister's office to avoid a heavy sentence. Netanyahu has consistently denied the charges, calling the prosecution's indictment a false accusation and fabricated investigation. Facing pressure from the prosecution, regaining power is absolutely essential for Netanyahu to avoid judicial risks.

However, since the number of seats secured by Netanyahu's right-wing bloc is just barely a majority, guaranteeing stable governance has become difficult.

With the rise of the far-right party alliance 'Religious Zionist Party' within the right-wing bloc led by Netanyahu, concerns have emerged that the next coalition government formed by Netanyahu will have an extreme right-wing orientation.

Accordingly, the next government's policy toward Palestine and the Arab world is expected to become more hardline.

Since the Arab Spring, amid Middle Eastern turmoil and threats from Iran, Israel has held five general elections in three years due to severe political division. After the April and September 2019 elections, coalition government formation itself failed.

After the March 2020 election, the right-wing Likud party led by Netanyahu and the centrist Blue and White party led by Defense Minister Gantz formed a coalition government under the pretext of overcoming the COVID-19 crisis, but it collapsed amid conflicts over budget approval.

After the March 2022 election, following the failure of Netanyahu's right-wing coalition formation, the 'anti-Netanyahu coalition' designed by current Prime Minister Lapid was launched. However, the coalition collapsed within a year as some right-wing lawmakers defected one after another.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.