Confusion Continues Ahead of Israel General Election... Focus on Netanyahu's Return to Power

Netanyahu Coalition Likely to Secure Majority with 61 Seats
Arab Voter Turnout is Key... "May Prevent Reelection"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Ahead of the Israeli general election scheduled for the 1st of next month, there is a possibility that the right-wing coalition led by former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will secure a majority of seats and return to power. The centrist coalition led by current Prime Minister Yair Lapid is trailing by a narrow margin, and with many battleground districts, the race is expected to remain tight.

According to the Times of Israel on the 30th (local time), based on 36 opinion polls conducted since last month ahead of the election on the 1st of next month, the right-wing coalition led by former Prime Minister Netanyahu is projected to win an average of 60.3 out of 120 seats. In contrast, the centrist coalition led by Lapid is expected to secure an average of 55.7 seats. Among the 36 polls, 10 indicated that the right-wing coalition would win 61 seats or more.

Accordingly, there is a possibility that former Prime Minister Netanyahu will return to power in this election. By party, the right-leaning Likud Party, led by Netanyahu, is in first place with 31 seats, while Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party ranks second with 27 seats.

However, since there are many battleground districts on both sides, some caution that predicting the election outcome remains difficult. Concerns have also been raised that if neither side secures the majority of 61 seats, Israeli politics could once again fall into chaos. In the past four years, no coalition has secured a majority, resulting in five general elections being held.

The maritime boundary demarcation and offshore gas field development project with Lebanon, strongly promoted by Prime Minister Lapid and the Israeli cabinet, is reportedly receiving less attention than expected. Controversy continues as far-right groups criticize the unilateral maritime boundary demarcation without parliamentary consultation.

On the other hand, Netanyahu’s announcement late in the election campaign that he would appoint Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit Party, as a minister in the next government to stimulate far-right votes is expected to be a major election variable. Previously, Otzma leader Ben-Gvir called for the expulsion of Arab citizens who are "not loyal to the state," which sparked strong backlash from Arab citizens within Israel.

The Times of Israel stated, "Voter turnout is the biggest variable in an election with many undecided voters who have solidified support for either side," adding, "If the Arab population, which showed a turnout in the low 40% range in recent elections, votes at over 50%, the possibility of former Prime Minister Netanyahu’s return to power could significantly decrease."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.