Infection Reproduction Number Surpasses 1, Raising Concerns of 'Doubling'... Winter Resurgence?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Byeon Seon-jin] Concerns about a winter resurgence are emerging as the infection reproduction number surpasses 1 and the number of infections doubles compared to the previous week.

According to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters (CDSCH) on the 21st, the infection reproduction number, which indicates the degree of the outbreak, was 1.09 as of that day, exceeding 1 for the first time in 9 weeks. A value above 1 indicates the spread of the outbreak.

At the regular CDSCH briefing, Park Hyang, head of the Central Accident Response Headquarters' quarantine team at the Ministry of Health and Welfare, was asked whether the reproduction number exceeding 1 marks the start of a resurgence. She responded, "Rather than a rebound, it is a pause in the declining trend," adding, "The extent of the increase has become somewhat smaller." She explained, "It is difficult to determine whether this is the beginning of an upward trend based on just one week, so the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency will conduct further analysis," and emphasized, "We need to monitor the trend."

She continued, "Two to three weeks ago, many holidays led to a decrease in the number of tests," explaining, "As the rate of confirmed cases' decline slowed and testing numbers increased again, the number of confirmed cases rose, causing the reproduction number to jump to 1 compared to two to three weeks ago." She noted that due to the holiday base effect, it is premature to conclude that the spread has started.

The recent 'doubling' phenomenon, where confirmed cases more than doubled compared to the previous week, occurring for the first time in three months, is also a factor raising concerns about resurgence. On the 18th, new confirmed cases numbered 33,248, more than twice the 10,140 cases reported on the 11th, a week earlier. Park said, "Since we look at weekly averages, we currently see the overall increase rate slowing down."

Health authorities and experts predict the winter resurgence to occur around next month or early December. On the 17th, Jeong Gi-seok, head of the COVID-19 Special Response Team and member of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee, stated, "There is a possibility that a full-scale resurgence will occur around early December in South Korea."

Jeong Jae-hoon, professor of preventive medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine and also a member of the National Infectious Disease Crisis Response Advisory Committee, recently posted on Facebook, "Although no particular variant has shown a marked increase yet, one variant is expected to surge rapidly by early to mid-November," and predicted, "The resurgence will likely begin in earnest from next month." Professor Jeong added, "In South Korea, the BF.7 variant is increasing, while in the US and Europe, the BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 variants are becoming more prevalent," and speculated, "BF.7 will cause the initial increase, and BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 will lead the main resurgence."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.