[中 20th Party Congress①] Xi Jinping Heading Toward a Turning Point of 'Lifelong Rule'... Principles Have Been Broken

Successor to Premier Li Keqiang Likely Wang Yang, Former Communist Youth League Member
Technical Bureaucrats Expected to Revive and Prepare US Strategy
7-Member Standing Committee May Maintain Mixed 5th and 6th Generation System

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Kim Hyun-jung] China is expected to enter an era of de facto 'lifelong rule' of President Xi Jinping following the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), which opens on the 16th. Within the party, despite the unprecedented adversity of the COVID-19 outbreak, there is a celebratory atmosphere claiming that under the strong leadership of the national leader, China has successfully transitioned through a moderately prosperous society (Xiaokang·小康) and entered the 'new era.' This time, Xi's reappointment is seen not as a temporary departure from the customary 10-year term but as a move toward indefinite rule, making the 20th Party Congress a historic turning point in Communist Party politics.

Among the seven plenary sessions held during the president's five-year term, the last meeting, the 7th Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee (19th CC 7th Plenum), which concluded on the 12th, confirmed Xi Jinping's third term as a foregone conclusion. The communiqu? released after the closing stated, "Establishing Comrade Xi Jinping's core position in the Party Central Committee and the whole Party, and establishing the guiding position of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, is the common aspiration of the entire Party, the armed forces, and all ethnic groups across the country," emphasizing, "We must unite more closely around the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at its core." The content resembles a formal endorsement.

Experts widely agree that through this Party Congress, President Xi will establish a one-man rule system and reign as a power-holder with no foreseeable end. Even assuming he rules for another 10 years, he would be 79 years old, younger than current U.S. President Joe Biden, who is 80. Xi is expected to revive the title 'People's Leader (Renmin Lingxiu, 人民領袖),' which was abolished 45 years ago by Deng Xiaoping, similar to Mao Zedong's tenure as Chairman of the Communist Party Central Committee. Previously, Chinese state media such as China Central Television (CCTV) have already referred to him as the 'People's Leader.'

◆No surprises... Key points to watch= So far, the only confirmed fact is Xi Jinping's 'third term,' while the biggest interests lie in the selection of the next Premier and the seven members of the Standing Committee. Premier Li Keqiang is expected to retire or take the position of Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPC). The most likely candidate for the next Premier is Wang Yang, ranked fourth in the power hierarchy and Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). However, Wang Yang is not part of Xi Jinping's faction, the Xi Jinping Group (Xi Zuojin), but rather comes from the Communist Youth League faction, like former President Hu Jintao and Premier Li, which is considered a limitation in the faction- and political color-conscious Communist Party politics.

However, at 67 years old, Wang appears to follow the retirement age convention of 68 (seven upper, eight lower), meaning he can be retired at any time, so there is no need to deliberately check him. Considering China's economic growth slowdown due to COVID-19 prevention, the new Cold War with the U.S., real estate market downturn, and natural disasters, many evaluate Wang, who has experience as Party Secretary of major economic provinces such as Chongqing and Guangdong, as a suitable candidate. One source explained, "Compared to other leading candidates, Wang Yang has the highest understanding of macro and microeconomics, and his appointment could be most positive for Korea in terms of diplomacy and trade." However, another source said, "Except for a very few, no one can know the leadership appointments in advance. Everything is just speculation."

Hu Chunhua, Vice Premier of the State Council born in the 1960s, is also mentioned, but due to his relatively young age, he is rising as a 'next' leader and is classified as a figure who could threaten Xi Jinping. It is also noteworthy that Hu was nominated by former President Hu Jintao, following the Communist Party tradition of 'generational succession,' where the current top leader pre-selects the next leader. With this third term, Xi Jinping has broken both the tradition of retirement age (seven upper, eight lower) and generational succession.

Xi Jinping is expected to strengthen his power base by filling the Politburo Standing Committee (7 members) and the Politburo (25 members) with his faction. Candidates for the new Standing Committee members include Ding Xuexiang, Director of the Central Office, and Chen Miner, Party Secretary of Chongqing, both born in the 1960s, as well as He Lifeng, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, and Li Qiang, Party Secretary of Shanghai, both born in the 1950s. The composition and ranking of the Standing Committee will be revealed for the first time after the Party Congress ends on the 22nd and the 1st Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee convenes the following day.

From the perspective of 'elite politics,' a mixed system where some 5th generation leaders (born in the 1950s) retire and 6th generation leaders (born in the 1960s) enter is necessary to ensure political stability and policy continuity. Victor Shih, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of California, San Diego, explained, "The new members of the Central Committee will be either his followers or people unrelated to strong factions. The Politburo will remain almost the same except for a few retirements and new entries, and of course, Xi Jinping's followers will occupy seats."

The appearance of the seven Standing Committee members revealed after the 19th Party Congress in October 2017. The numbers indicate the hierarchy of power.

◆Will technical bureaucrats responding to the U.S. rise? One expectation for Xi Jinping's third term appointments is the rise of technical bureaucrats, whose presence sharply declined during Hu Jintao's era. In fact, many leaders during Xi's tenure have majored in science and engineering in university and worked as engineers before being selected as party and government officials.

According to Professor Cho Young-nam of Seoul National University, the proportion of technical bureaucrats peaked at 66% during the 15th Party Congress (1997) under Jiang Zemin, then sharply dropped to 37% and 29% during the 16th (2002) and 17th (2007) Party Congresses under Hu Jintao. Even at the 18th Party Congress (2012), when Xi Jinping's term began, it remained at 29%, but rebounded to 37% at the 19th Party Congress. Among the 30 newly appointed provincial-level leaders at the 19th Party Congress, 56% were technical bureaucrats, and many (62%) came from advanced industries such as aerospace and semiconductors.

The increase in technical bureaucrats is noteworthy as it reflects Xi's future direction and goals. Especially with the recent intensification of the U.S.-China rivalry over semiconductor chips and China's growing capabilities in new market areas like electric vehicles, this is significant. The third term is likely to continue focusing on scientific and technological innovation to develop the economy and build capabilities to counter the U.S., as in the second term.

Other points of interest include whether the number of Standing Committee members will remain at seven or increase or decrease. Some speculated it might increase to nine, but the possibility is low. Increasing the number of Standing Committee members would imply that Xi Jinping's power is not absolute. Given his current control, the prevailing view is that the number will either decrease or remain at seven. The fact that the Party Congress is held as scheduled in mid-October also indicates that internal personnel arrangements have been completed according to Xi Jinping's plan.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.