Returned Reagan Ship Extends Joint Drills in East Sea... South Korea-US Increase Pressure on North Korea

US Aircraft Carrier Moves According to Annual Plan... Rare Daily Plan Changes
US-ROK Joint Exercises in East Sea Extended by 2 Days
Provocations Possible at Yeonpyeongdo to Heighten Military Tensions

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Military Specialist Reporter Yang Nak-gyu, Reporter Bae Kyung-hwan] The joint maritime combined exercises between South Korea and the United States, involving the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan (CVN-76, 103,000 tons), will be extended. It is unusual to change the training schedule of a US aircraft carrier, which operates according to an annual plan, on a daily basis. This is interpreted as an effort to raise the level of response to North Korea's provocations.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff announced that South Korea and the US will conduct joint maritime combined exercises for enhancing combined defense capabilities in international waters of the East Sea on the 7th and 8th.

The exercises involve the South Korean Navy's destroyer Munmu the Great and frigate Donghae. From the US side, besides the Ronald Reagan, the Aegis cruiser USS Chancellorsville, and the Aegis destroyers USS Benfold and USS Barry participated. The navies of both countries will conduct combined exercises including tactical maneuvers in the East Sea and jointly escort the Ronald Reagan to the southeast of Jeju Island.

Recently, South Korea, the US, and Japan conducted joint anti-submarine exercises to counter North Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), and on the 6th, joint exercises were held in international waters of the East Sea with the participation of the Ronald Reagan and others.

The addition of the joint exercises schedule in the East Sea by South Korea and the US is interpreted as a countermeasure to North Korea's provocative formation flights involving bombers. The day before, North Korea deployed 12 bombers and fighters of the Korean People's Army Air Force to conduct provocative formation flights south of the special surveillance line while flying from the Koksan area toward Hwangju.

This southward advance by the North Korean Air Force is the first in 10 years since four North Korean MiG-29 fighters flew near the Kaesong airspace in October 2012. It is also presumed that ground attack firing exercises were conducted.

If South Korea-US and North Korea raise military response levels, the 9·19 Military Agreement may be terminated. Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop: “We will review the efficiency of the inter-Korean military agreement while observing the intensity of North Korean provocations.”

Some express concerns that as the military response levels of South Korea, the US, and North Korea escalate, the termination of the September 19 military agreement is imminent.

Had the North Korean military aircraft flown south for just five more minutes the previous day, they could have crossed the special surveillance line and reached the Tactical Action Line (TAL). The TAL is only 20 to 50 km from the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), so crossing it would effectively violate the military agreement. The September 19 military agreement, concluded during the 2018 inter-Korean summit in Pyongyang, establishes no-fly zones within 10 to 40 km on both sides of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). In the future, North Korea is also likely to conduct coastal artillery and naval gunfire. However, the West Sea has a 135 km buffer zone and the East Sea an 80 km buffer zone, so such actions could violate the 9·19 military agreement.

If North Korea conducts accidental provocations in the frontline areas using land, sea, and air forces, South Korea's military will inevitably have to strengthen its surveillance, reconnaissance capabilities, and deterrent firepower against the North beyond current levels. This raises concerns that the inter-Korean 9·19 military agreement will naturally be terminated.

President Yoon Suk-yeol stated regarding the possibility of terminating the 9·19 inter-Korean military agreement in the event of North Korea's seventh nuclear test, "The three countries (South Korea, the US, and Japan) responding to North Korea's nuclear threat are steadily preparing countermeasures through various channels of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the National Security Office." When asked if termination of the 9·19 military agreement would be considered if North Korea proceeds with the seventh nuclear test, he replied, "It is a bit difficult to say in advance."

This statement is interpreted as not ruling out the possibility that South Korea may declare termination of the agreement first in the event of a major provocation such as a nuclear test by North Korea, drawing attention.

Earlier, Defense Minister Lee Jong-seop also mentioned at the National Assembly Defense Committee's audit on the 4th, "It is not desirable for only us to comply with the agreement when North Korea does not," and "We will review the efficiency of the 9·19 inter-Korean military agreement while observing the intensity of North Korean provocations."

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "North Korea continues provocations close to violating the 9·19 military agreement, such as unusual tactical flights of fighter jets," and "They will escalate provocations in various ways, including opening fire or conducting artillery firing exercises in areas like Baengnyeongdo or Yeonpyeongdo."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.