Italy's First Female Prime Minister Candidate... Will the 'Citizen Income Policy' Be Abolished After 3 Years?

'Poll Leader' Italian Brothers' Leader Pledges to Abolish Citizen Income... Opposes Refugee Influx and Muslim Immigration
Citizen Income Introduced in 2019 Received by 1.5 Million Jobless Households... Debt Ratio Increased from 133% to 152%

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] Italy's basic income policy, the 'citizens’ income' introduced in 2019, is facing abolition after just three years. This comes as Giorgia Meloni, leader of the far-right party Brothers of Italy (FdI), is expected to become Italy's first female prime minister in the general election scheduled for the 25th (local time).

Leader Meloni opposes LGBT rights, calls for a complete blockade of African refugee inflows, and opposes Muslim immigration. She has also pledged to abolish the citizens’ income policy introduced by the current ruling party, the Five Star Movement.

In the last Ipsos poll released on the 7th ahead of the general election, FdI recorded the highest support at 25.1%. The Democratic Party (PD), led by former Prime Minister Enrico Letta, followed with 20.5%, and the Five Star Movement, led by former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, came next with 14.5%.

◆Rapid increase in debt ratio... Five Star Movement’s support halved= Conte, leader of the Five Star Movement, is making the abolition of the citizens’ income policy a key issue in this election, warning that "abolishing the citizens’ income policy could lead to civil war."

The citizens’ income policy is credited with helping to overcome COVID-19 but is also criticized for significantly increasing national debt and pushing the Italian economy into crisis. It is also blamed for worsening labor shortages in companies.

The citizens’ income aims to provide basic livelihood income to those without jobs. So far this year, about 1.5 million households have received the citizens’ income, with an average monthly payment of 582 euros (approximately 811,874 KRW). According to Italian government statistics, two-thirds of recipients are concentrated in the impoverished southern regions. Voters in the poorer southern regions overwhelmingly supported the Five Star Movement’s basic income pledge in the March 2018 general election compared to the north.

It is difficult to assess the economic impact of the citizens’ income policy as the COVID-19 pandemic occurred just one year after its introduction. However, the Italian government’s debt ratio has risen sharply, increasing concerns.

According to Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office, Italy’s government debt-to-GDP ratio was 133.4% at the end of Q1 2018, shortly after the last general election, but rose to 152.6% by the end of Q1 this year. During the same period, Greece’s debt ratio increased from 180.4% to 189.3%, and Portugal’s from 126.4% to 127%. Some experts warn that Italy’s debt ratio exceeding 150% raises the risk of default.

Companies complain that the citizens’ income policy has made it difficult to find workers. The Financial Times (FT), citing Italian statistical data, reported that the construction industry’s wage growth rate in Italy reached 21% last year, attributing this to difficulties in recruiting workers willing to work.

◆The birth of the first female prime minister is imminent= Meloni, expected to become Italy’s first female prime minister, is anticipated to form a right-wing coalition government with the far-right League (Lega) and Forza Italia (FI), a center-right party founded by former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. In the final Ipsos poll, the League and Forza Italia ranked 4th and 5th with support rates of 12.5% and 8%, respectively. The right-wing coalition has pledged to expand public spending and implement significant tax cuts.

However, as Meloni and League leader Matteo Salvini have increasingly expressed differing opinions ahead of the election, there are forecasts that internal conflicts may be severe even if the right-wing coalition is formed.

While Berlusconi and Salvini are pro-Russian figures, Meloni advocates for active sanctions against Russia.

Salvini, in particular, was known as a prominent pro-Putin figure, having praised Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2019 as "the best politician currently alive on Earth." However, in an interview with Bloomberg on the 19th, he indicated a change in his views on Putin and appeared to distance himself from the Russian leader.

FdI, to which Meloni belongs, traces its roots to the Italian Social Movement (MSI), founded the year after Benito Mussolini’s death, and is classified as a far-right party inheriting fascism. However, analysts suggest that even if Meloni comes to power, she is unlikely to pursue extreme policy shifts that overturn the existing system. In her book published last year, "I Am Giorgia," Meloni emphasized that she is not a fascist.

The European Union (EU) Commission, which felt great unease when the Five Star Movement and the League formed a coalition after the 2018 general election, is reportedly less worried about a Meloni-led coalition. Meloni has stated that even with bold fiscal spending, she will adhere to the EU’s fiscal rules and that Italy’s finances will not collapse.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.