Tensions on the Korean Peninsula Escalate to 'Gangdaegang' Level from Now On

North Korea Legalizes Preemptive Nuclear Strikes
Possibility of Nuclear Tests After Chinese Communist Party's October Congress

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea has legislated to enable a preemptive nuclear strike. It also specifies a clause that automatically launches a nuclear strike if the command center, led by North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un, is attacked in an emergency. This is expected to further heighten concerns about the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

The "On Nuclear Force Policy," adopted as a nuclear force policy decree by North Korea at the Supreme People's Assembly on the 8th, broadly stipulates the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons as "when a nuclear weapon or other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) attack has been carried out or is judged to be imminent," and "when a catastrophic crisis threatening the existence of the state and the safety of the people's lives occurs, creating an unavoidable situation where nuclear weapons must be used in response."

Five usage conditions are presented in total, and it is notable that nuclear weapons can also be used in the event of an attack or imminent signs of attack on the "national leadership and the national nuclear force command organization." For example, this means nuclear weapons can be used even in the case of imminent signs of a "decapitation operation" against Chairman Kim Jong-un.

The new decree officially abolishes and replaces the previous decree adopted on April 1, 2013, at the Supreme People's Assembly, which solidified the "status as a nuclear-armed state." While the existing decree described nuclear weapons as "an unavoidable justifiable means of self-defense against hostile U.S. policies," the new decree has aggressively shifted to allow their use for preemptive strikes against South Korea.

With North Korea mentioning nuclear weapons for preemptive strikes, a nuclear test is also expected to become a reality. North Korea began preparations for the 7th nuclear test around March, completed preparations around May, and intelligence agencies at the time detected signs of a nuclear detonation device test. Although the momentum for a nuclear test weakened due to the domestic COVID-19 outbreak and heavy summer rains, aside from auxiliary work such as backfilling underground tunnels, the common assessment between South Korea and the U.S. is that only Chairman Kim's political decision remains for the nuclear test to proceed.

If North Korea decides to conduct a nuclear test, it is expected to set the timing considering not only domestic but also external political schedules.

Analysts suggest that the period after the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (Party Congress) on October 16, when Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to secure a third term, and before the U.S. midterm elections on November 8, is being eyed by North Korea to maximize strategic effect.

The military and government authorities are closely monitoring North Korea's movements and related facilities, and if North Korea carries out the 7th nuclear test, they are prepared to respond strongly in cooperation not only with the U.S. but also with Japan.

U.S. Nuclear-Powered Aircraft Carrier of 7th Fleet to Enter Busan at Month-End as Warning
Discussing Joint Exercises with ROK Navy in the East Sea
South Korea and U.S. to Detail Discussions on U.S. Nuclear Umbrella Provision on the 16th

Measures by South Korea and the U.S. to warn against North Korean provocations are becoming increasingly visible. The U.S. 7th Fleet's nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) is scheduled to enter Busan around the end of this month, and coordination is underway for joint naval exercises in the East Sea. This would be the first nuclear-powered aircraft carrier visit in five years. After North Korea's 6th nuclear test in November 2017, the U.S. sent three nuclear carriers?the USS Ronald Reagan, USS Nimitz (CVN-68), and USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71)?simultaneously to the East Sea for joint exercises as a warning message.

The U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carriers carry various air assets, including fighter jets, attack aircraft, and EA-18G "Growler" electronic warfare aircraft, which are feared by North Korea due to its outdated air defense network and weak electronic warfare capabilities.

South Korea and the U.S. are also concretizing discussions to provide the U.S. "nuclear umbrella" to South Korea. On the 16th, South Korea and the U.S. will hold an Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) meeting in Washington, D.C. This will be the first EDSCG meeting in 4 years and 8 months since the second meeting in January 2018.

EDSCG is a forum where deputy foreign and defense ministers of both countries discuss policies on "extended deterrence," a concept where the U.S. extends its nuclear deterrence to allies by supporting nuclear weapon delivery systems when an ally is attacked or threatened by nuclear weapons.

South Korea and the U.S. plan to conduct an Extended Deterrence Tailored Exercise (TTX) within this year following the EDSCG. The TTX is a drill designed to devise military response plans between South Korea and the U.S. for various scenarios, including North Korea's nuclear threat stage, imminent nuclear use stage, and actual nuclear use stage.

While EDSCG sends a policy-level message to North Korea, the TTX signifies military-level preparedness. Through this process, South Korea and the U.S. expect to enhance the credibility of the U.S. extended deterrence commitment.

Additionally, South Korea and the U.S. are considering sanctions and pressure measures if North Korea carries out strategic provocations such as an actual nuclear test or a test launch of an improved ICBM.

As North Korea's traditional foreign currency earning methods such as coal exports and labor dispatch have been blocked by UN Security Council sanctions, it has been strengthening illegal foreign currency acquisition by hacking and converting cryptocurrency into cash. South Korea and the U.S. are reportedly discussing multifaceted measures to counter this.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.