'Brazil's Left-Wing Godfather' Lula's Political Drama Season 2 [Global Focus]

Will Lula Return as President After 13 Years... Leading Bolsonaro by 13%P in Polls
High Popularity During 2003-2010 Presidency... Conservative Rule Since 2016 Due to Left-Wing Corruption

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] The life of Luiz In?cio Lula da Silva, the former president of Brazil who rose to the presidency with only a fifth-grade elementary school dropout education, is a drama in itself.

Lula is preparing another drama with his return to the presidency after 13 years in the Brazilian presidential election to be held on the 2nd of next month. Considering his arduous political journey after his resignation, including imprisonment on charges of bribery and money laundering, with his sentence once extended to 17 years, this is even more dramatic.

Lula’s popularity in Brazil is clearly not what it used to be. Although the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court ruled last year that all prison sentences imposed on Lula were invalid, conservative voters still harbor suspicions about him. Corruption committed by the Workers' Party (PT), which Lula led in founding, during its time in power has also been exposed. Nevertheless, Lula remains a political giant with strong support as a symbolic godfather of the Brazilian left. Above all, the current president Jair Bolsonaro, dubbed the ‘Amazon Trump,’ has repeatedly sparked controversies during his term, effectively paving the way for his own defeat.

◆ Lula leads Bolsonaro by 13 percentage points = Although 12 candidates have thrown their hats into the ring for this election, the race has long narrowed down to a showdown between former President Lula and President Bolsonaro.

From the moment Lula’s candidacy was anticipated, he comfortably led Bolsonaro in opinion polls. According to a poll conducted by local polling firm Datafolha from the 30th of last month to the 1st of this month, Lula’s approval rating stood at 45%, down 2 percentage points from the previous survey. The gap with Bolsonaro also narrowed by the same margin, but Bolsonaro’s support remained stagnant at 32%.

In a poll last December, Lula’s support exceeded 50%, while Bolsonaro’s was only 22%. Compared to then, it can be interpreted that the conservative base is consolidating as the election approaches, but Bolsonaro, who has a hardline conservative stance, is said to have limitations in expanding to the moderate electorate.

If no candidate wins a majority in the first round of voting on the 2nd of next month, a runoff between the top two candidates will be held on the 30th of the same month. In the second-round runoff poll, Lula led with 53% support, while Bolsonaro had 38%, showing a 15 percentage point gap. Currently, Lula’s support has halved compared to when he left office. Lula was elected president after three attempts and enjoyed high popularity during his tenure. Due to constitutional rules prohibiting a third term, his approval rating exceeded 80% when he stepped down in 2010.

However, during the administration of his successor, former President Dilma Rousseff, Brazil’s economy declined, and allegations surfaced that the ruling PT created large slush funds using the state-owned oil company Petrobras and received bribes from major construction firms, causing the support for PT and Lula to plummet.

From Lula’s administration in 2003 until Rousseff’s impeachment in August 2016, corruption within the ruling left was confirmed, increasing public resentment toward the left and leading to a conservative shift in Brazilian society. According to Brazilian research firm IDEIA Big Data, the proportion of Brazilians who consider themselves evangelical Christians rose from 22% in 2010 to over 30% currently.

This conservative shift in Brazil set the stage for the far-right Bolsonaro’s rise to power in the 2018 election. According to IDEIA, Bolsonaro received overwhelming support of 51% among voters aged 16 to 24 in the 2018 election, while PT’s candidate Fernando Haddad garnered only 29%.

◆ Bolsonaro stirs controversy with Trump-like actions = During his tenure, Bolsonaro sparked far-right controversies and failed to attract the moderate electorate. The Bolsonaro administration, which ended 16 years of progressive government, exhibited extreme right-wing tendencies, deepening Brazil’s left-right divide.

He mirrored former U.S. President Donald Trump in many ways during his term. Bolsonaro denied the effectiveness of vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic and refused vaccination, which drew criticism for causing massive casualties in Brazil. As of the 2nd, Brazil’s cumulative COVID-19 death toll exceeded 680,000, ranking second in the world after the U.S. (1.03 million).

Bolsonaro was also repeatedly embroiled in controversies over racist, xenophobic, and homophobic remarks during his term. His support for gun ownership and relaxation of gun restrictions during his tenure also closely resemble Trump’s policies. Since last year, Bolsonaro has baselessly raised concerns about possible manipulation of the electronic voting system. This has led to speculation that he might reject the election results if he loses next month’s presidential election.

Economic mismanagement also hampers Bolsonaro. According to FGV, the number of people living in extreme poverty in Brazil surged by more than one-third last year, reaching 14% of the total population. Despite Brazil being a major global grain exporter, a Gallup poll found that 36% of Brazilians said they do not have enough money to buy food. During his presidency, Lula significantly reduced poverty through a strong redistribution policy called ‘Bolsa Familia.’

◆ Lula: "Will increase public spending" = In an interview with the Financial Times (FT) last July, Lula stated, "When poor people stop becoming poorer and become consumers of health, education, and goods, the entire economy grows," and pledged to abolish the constitutional cap on public spending.

He emphasized that social spending is not a cost but an investment. He also said he would review labor policies enacted after the PT government stepped down and completely overhaul Bolsonaro’s tax policies, which favored the wealthy and failed.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.