[Public Voices] Does the U.S. Democratic Party Have a Solution to Win Back Its Support Base?

Acceleration of Core Supporters' Defection
Trump Remains a Potent Force
A Lesson for South Korea's Democratic Party

[Asia Economy] It is not difficult to predict a defeat for the Democratic Party in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections this November. Midterm elections held halfway through a president’s term reflect voters’ judgment on the administration. Former Democratic presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama both suffered major defeats in their first midterm elections. Nevertheless, many U.S. presidents have overcome the initial midterm evaluation of their governance and secured re-election. However, the outlook for this November’s midterms is quite different from usual.

Under the Joe Biden administration, inflation has reached its highest level in 40 years, and crime rates in major cities are at their worst. The chaos experienced during the Afghanistan withdrawal and the prolonged fatigue from COVID-19 have led to low approval ratings for the current government. Biden’s key policy agendas have been repeatedly thwarted by the united opposition of the Republican Party and Democratic Senator Joe Manchin’s obstinacy.

The most concerning aspect is the shaking of the Democratic Party’s core support base. Recent polls by The New York Times and Siena College show that while highly educated white voters remain supportive of the Democrats, there has been a notable defection among white working-class voters. The Democratic Party trails the Republicans by 12 percentage points not only among white voters but also among all voters without a college degree. While the Democrats struggle to maintain a multiracial coalition of the working class, the Republicans are increasingly successful in attracting wealthy urban and suburban voters.

The erosion of the Democratic Party’s traditional support base stems from the rise of Donald Trump. In the last presidential election, Biden was not the ideal choice for the Democrats but a necessary alternative to defeat Trump. The Democratic Party’s path is much more progressive than that. That is why two years ago, the White House embarked on a progressive agenda that surpassed Biden’s leadership. The body is centrist, but the head is progressive.

Policies like the Green New Deal, gun control, and campaigns opposing attacks on abortion rights should have been pursued more strategically and forcefully. However, the U.S. president is not Bernie Sanders but Biden. Congress is still led by centrists Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer. The progressive wing in Congress only raised their voices.

Although the Trump administration was chaotic, businesses enthusiastically welcomed deregulation, and evangelical Christians swelled in numbers thanks to conservative Supreme Court appointments. The wealthy blindly supported policies that reduced their taxes, and communities devastated by factory closures rallied behind political slogans condemning neoliberal free trade, even arming themselves. There was no consistent plan or policy for “America First,” but supporters felt the Trump administration had done something for them. Thus, Trump’s political force remains strong ahead of the midterms. Eighty percent of Republican primary winners running in the midterms are candidates endorsed by Trump. His political momentum continues.

The Democratic Party’s goal is a defeat that is recoverable. The election dynamics must be changed so that voters evaluating Biden’s performance choose between the Republicans or Trump. It is necessary to actively inform and translate into policy the fact that while the wealthy benefit from growth, workers are less secure and must struggle harder to make a living. The defection of the core support base must also be prevented. Only then will there be a way to recover even after a crushing defeat in the midterms.

Politics requires expanding the support base, and expansion only works when the core support base is solid. One must be strong oneself to claim superiority over the opponent’s weaknesses. The Democratic Party cannot escape this truth either.

Kim Dong-seok, Representative of the Korean American Voters Coalition

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.