Biden in Crisis, Could the 'Abortion Rights' Issue Turn the Tide?

Increase in Female Voter Registration After 'Abortion Rights Overturn' Ruling
Democratic Candidate Emphasizing Abortion Rights Wins in Key Battleground District

On June 26 (local time), two days after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade precedent and ruled to abolish abortion rights, abortion advocates held a protest in front of the Washington Federal Supreme Court. [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Intern Reporter Yunjin Kim] In the United States, which is preparing for the midterm elections this November, there is an analysis that the issue of 'abortion rights (pregnancy termination rights) repeal' could work in favor of the Democratic Party. This comes as female voter turnout has been observed in some states, and Democratic candidates emphasizing abortion rights have won in battleground areas, showing a favorable trend for the Democrats.

Since the federal Supreme Court overturned the 'Roe v. Wade' ruling in June, which had established abortion rights as a constitutional right, abortion rights have emerged as a major issue in American politics. The Democratic Party is adopting a strategy to secure votes in the midterm elections by criticizing the Supreme Court ruling.

Meanwhile, there is an analysis that female voters are rallying in the U.S. in response to the abortion rights repeal ruling. On the 25th (local time), The New York Times reported that in 10 states where voter data was available, the proportion of women among newly registered voters increased from less than half to 55% after the repeal of 'Roe v. Wade.' In Kansas, female voter registration exceeded 70% of new registrations within a week of the ruling's release.

In a survey released on the 16th (local time) by TargetSmart, a Democratic-leaning political data service company, female new voter registrations significantly outnumbered males in states at risk of abortion rights repeal such as Kansas, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart, emphasized the need to pay attention to public opinion trends until the midterm elections, stating, "This phenomenon is not only seen in Democratic states. It is more pronounced in states where abortion rights are at risk or have been repealed."

Additionally, optimistic forecasts have emerged that the Democratic Party will lead in the midterm elections as Democratic candidates emphasizing abortion rights perform well. On the 23rd (local time), in the special election for New York State's 19th Congressional District, Democratic candidate Pat Ryan defeated Republican candidate Mark Molinaro. The 19th District of New York is a representative battleground where Democratic (Barack Obama), Republican (Donald Trump), and Democratic (Joe Biden) candidates alternated victories in the last three presidential elections.

The Hill, a U.S. political media outlet, mentioned that Democratic candidates performed better than Biden's last presidential vote share in three other special elections held besides New York's 19th District, analyzing that "the Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe v. Wade likely drove the Democratic performance in the special elections." Some Democrats view the election results as a barometer revealing the impact of abortion rights on the midterm elections and express expectations.

However, there are voices that it is difficult to predict the Democratic Party's midterm election results based on recent trends such as special elections. CNN pointed out, "The turnout in the four special elections was not high. Different results could emerge among the much larger midterm election voters," especially noting that areas with diverse racial compositions may differ from special election areas with predominantly white populations. There is also a view that a Democratic defeat is inevitable due to the strong government judgment nature of midterm election trends.

Nonetheless, since the opinion that abortion rights are a favorable issue for the Democratic Party is dominant, how much the abortion rights issue will influence the midterm election landscape continues to attract public attention. U.S. public radio NPR evaluated, "The key is whether the enthusiasm revealed in the special elections will be maintained until the November midterm elections, where more people vote," adding, "Political momentum is changing particularly rapidly during this election period."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.