[30 Years of Korea-China Diplomatic Relations] "China Does Not Care About Korea," Diagnosis by Seoul National University Professor Emeritus Yoon Young-kwan

China Considers Only the US as Its Opponent
North Korean Nuclear Issue and South Korea-China Relations Are Key Variables

[Asia Economy Reporters Inho Yoo and Jieun Lee] "China does not even consider South Korea. The opponent they think about is the United States."

Yoon Young-kwan, Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University and former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade (pictured), defined China's perspective on South Korea on the occasion of the 30th anniversary of Korea-China diplomatic relations as such.

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Yoon Young-kwan. / Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

China feels no sense of crisis toward South Korea in areas such as economy and security.

South Korea is being overtaken by China in relative competitiveness across various industrial sectors. In the security field, the two countries are at odds over North Korea's nuclear weapons and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system.

The Korea-China relationship, marking its 30th anniversary, now faces so many challenges that it cannot be viewed optimistically. Doubts have also grown about how to open the next 30 years.

Professor Yoon suggested that the solution lies in strongly demanding an equal relationship with China based on three major principles: 'sovereign equality,' 'mutual respect,' and 'the principle of reciprocity.' Below is a Q&A.

- Politically and structurally, the environment between the two countries is not conducive to good relations, yet until a few years ago, Korea-China relations were relatively decent because of economic reasons. But now, that is a thing of the past. The gap with China is narrowing.

△ China does not even consider South Korea significant. The opponent they think about is the United States. Their main concern is how to compete with and surpass the U.S.

In terms of technology, China is advancing with the 'Made in China 2025' initiative, aiming to secure world-class technological levels in ten key industries. I do not believe China feels a significant threat from South Korea.

On the other hand, since South Korea is being overtaken by China in relative competitiveness across various industries, it is a very important task to determine what industrial strategies to pursue and how to proceed.

- Given that China is chasing South Korea across industries, is South Korea’s effort to maintain a super-gap insufficient?

△ It is very insufficient. It even seems complacent. South Korea has not made strong efforts to widen the gap with China in various fields or to pioneer areas that China would find difficult to catch up with.

To maintain a super-gap, companies need favorable conditions to secure technology and competitiveness, but South Korea’s strict regulations do not help companies accumulate technological capabilities. Labor issues are also obstacles.

From the perspective of large corporations, they have no choice but to look toward other countries, including the United States.

- The Korea-China relationship has been strained over South Korea’s joining of the U.S.-led semiconductor alliance Chip4 (South Korea, U.S., Japan, Taiwan). There are concerns about having to choose sides between the U.S. and China amid what is called a new Cold War. How should this be resolved?

△ The Chip4 alliance proposed by the U.S. has no clear outline yet. It is just about the four countries gathering to discuss and cooperate; it is not at the stage of targeting China.

In this situation, I think it should be considered positively. Calculating the pros and cons, South Korea should actively participate in the U.S.-led semiconductor supply chain and also join the supply chain in the next-generation semiconductor technology field, such as quantum information communication technology.

Also, South Korea should inherit standards and technological assets in that field to open a path for its semiconductor industry to expand into next-generation industries. If China reduces its semiconductor imports from South Korea, it will cause significant damage, but South Korea should try to compensate for losses by seeking alternative complementary cooperation regions and increasing exports there.

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Yoon Young-kwan. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

- Then, can the current Korea-China relationship be seen as a crisis?

△ The biggest crisis was the economic sanctions imposed by China in 2016 over the THAAD deployment and the resulting deterioration in bilateral relations. Not only the political relationship but also public perception toward China worsened significantly.

Currently, I see it not as a crisis situation but as a recovery phase from the crisis caused by China’s economic sanctions. However, it remains a cautious situation with the constant possibility of crisis recurrence.

- Looking ahead 30 years to the 60th anniversary of Korea-China diplomatic relations, what will be the most important diplomatic issue?

△ It is extremely difficult to predict the future over the next 30 years. Nevertheless, if I were to make a rough estimate, it would likely be the possibility of changes in Korea-China relations due to the North Korean variable.

I do not think North Korea will maintain its current state for the next 30 years. Whether gradually or radically, North Korea will undergo significant changes, and the driving force behind those changes will probably be economic and social changes caused by internal marketization in North Korea.

- It sounds like the North Korean nuclear issue is likely to be an important variable in future Korea-China relations.

△ Fundamentally, for the North Korean nuclear issue to be resolved, China’s diplomatic stance must change. So far, China has protected North Korea and provided economic support such as food and energy.

Considering the traditional special relationship between China and North Korea, that is understandable to some extent. However, the problem lies in China’s attitude after North Korea began nuclear development.

China regarded North Korea as a kind of buffer zone in confrontation with South Korea and the U.S., and prioritized supporting the North Korean regime to ensure that buffer zone did not disappear. Denuclearization was placed as a secondary priority, which I believe was problematic.

China should have devoted itself to persuading and pressuring North Korea in cooperation with Western countries, especially the U.S., on the international stage, but it did not. Although China led the Six-Party Talks in the 2000s, its role was limited to bridging rather than persuading and pressuring North Korea.

Only if China separates the North Korean denuclearization issue from the U.S.-China competition context and actively engages in denuclearization will there be a possibility of resolving the North Korean nuclear issue.

- The Yoon Seok-yeol administration recently marked 100 days. Evaluations of its China strategy, especially in diplomacy and security, are mixed. What is your assessment?

△ It is difficult to evaluate since the government has only been in office for about three months.

However, I positively assess the effort to reset Korea-China relations in a direction that respects each other’s sovereignty, is based on reciprocity, and matures under equal conditions.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.