US-Iran Resume Nuclear Deal Restoration Talks After 5 Months: "This Is the Last Chance"

All Parties' Representatives Meet in Vienna Under EU Mediation
OPEC+ Minimal Production Increase Raises Importance of Nuclear Agreement
Last Chance for US to Reach Deal Before November Midterm Elections

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Delegations from the United States, Iran, and other related countries have announced the resumption of negotiations to restore the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA - Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) after five months, drawing attention to whether an agreement will be reached. The talks, which have already been stalled for 15 months, face the risk of being completely derailed if this round also fails.

Within Iran, where uranium enrichment has already been raised to levels capable of nuclear weapon development, there are concerns that hardliners may push forward with nuclear development if the talks collapse again. In the U.S., with the possibility of the Republican Party taking control around the November midterm elections, there is also a chance that the negotiations could be canceled altogether. Accordingly, both sides are expected to treat this round of talks as a last chance and strive to find a breakthrough.

On the 3rd (local time), Enrique Mora, Head of the European Union (EU) External Action Service (EEAS), tweeted, "Discussions to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons and to fully implement the JCPOA are scheduled to resume in Vienna," adding, "The EU has distributed a mediation proposal outlining the terms of agreement to the U.S., Iran, and other parties involved in the talks."

According to the Associated Press, delegations from the U.S., Iran, the UK, France, Germany, China, Russia, and other JCPOA-related countries are already heading to Vienna. Rob Malley, the U.S. Special Envoy for Iran, stated on Twitter, "We welcome the EU's mediation efforts and are prepared to reach an agreement."

Nasser Kanaani, spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also expressed hope for progress in the negotiations, saying in a statement, "Various opinions, including the EU's mediation proposal, will be exchanged during this round of talks." According to AFP, the Iranian government has not commented on the EU's mediation proposal but has indicated it will participate in the negotiations for now.

Initially, at the end of June, the U.S. and Iran held separate bilateral contacts in Doha, Qatar, mediated by the EU, but failed to reach an agreement, lowering expectations for further talks. Subsequently, when U.S. President Joe Biden visited Saudi Arabia last month and held talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, promising to curb Iran's nuclear development and provide military security support in exchange for increased oil production, concerns arose that the JCPOA restoration negotiations might be completely derailed.

However, with Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, announcing only minimal increases in oil production, the importance of restoring the JCPOA has grown again. According to CNBC, if the JCPOA restoration negotiations succeed, leading to the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran and the return of Iranian oil to the international market, an increase of 1 to 2 million barrels per day is expected.

On the same day, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and OPEC Plus (OPEC+), a coalition of major non-OPEC oil producers including Russia, announced that the oil production increase for September would be set at 100,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since 1986. With 23 member countries, including Russia, allocated this 100,000-barrel increase, the actual effect on production is expected to be minimal.

With the risk of the negotiations collapsing entirely if this round also fails, both the U.S. and Iran are expected to make every effort to find common ground. Politico analyzed, "The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimates Iran's uranium enrichment at 60%, which will soon reach 90%, a level capable of producing nuclear weapons. Subsequently, hardliners in Iran are expected to intensify their push for nuclear development. In the U.S., with the Democratic Party expected to suffer defeat in the November midterms and the Republican Party, which opposes the nuclear deal, likely to take control, this is effectively the last chance to reach an agreement."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.