Record High July Power Demand Amid Heatwave... 'Blackout' Risk Next Week

On the 25th, when a heatwave advisory was issued for most regions nationwide, workers were sweating profusely at the construction site in Gwanghwamun Square, Jongno-gu, Seoul. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Sejong=Reporter Dongwoo Lee] As the government's forecast for this summer's peak electricity demand approaches in a week, it is expected to be the biggest challenge in power supply and demand management. If electricity demand rises and the supply reserve margin drops significantly, there is a possibility that an emergency alert could be issued for the first time in nine years since 2013.

According to the Korea Power Exchange on the 1st, the average monthly peak power last month reached a record high of 82,007 MW, a 1.0% increase compared to the same month last year (81,158 MW). On the 7th of last month, the peak power demand at 5 p.m. soared to 92,990 MW, surpassing the previous record of 92,478 MW set on July 24, 2018.

Peak power refers to the moment of highest electricity usage during the day, and the average monthly peak power is the average of the daily peak power sums over a month.

The government is making every effort to secure the supply reserve margin as the rainy season ends and the intense heat begins this summer. Usually, the stable power supply margin is considered to be a reserve capacity of 10,000 MW and a reserve rate of 10%, but this year the reserve rate has already fallen to single digits three times. It dropped to 9.5% on the 5th, 8.7% on the 6th, and 7.2% on the 7th of last month. When the reserve capacity is low, the possibility of a power crisis due to sudden generator shutdowns or abnormal temperatures exceeding expectations cannot be ruled out.

An emergency power supply alert is issued when the supply reserve capacity falls below 5.5 GW (gigawatts, 5,500 MW). However, such an alert has not been issued once in the past nine years since August 2013. Depending on the supply reserve capacity level, the stages are classified as follows: Stage 1 is 'Preparation' (below 5.5 GW), Stage 2 is 'Interest' (below 4.5 GW), Stage 3 is 'Caution' (below 3.5 GW), Stage 4 is 'Warning' (below 2.5 GW), and Stage 5 is 'Severe' (below 1.5 GW).

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy forecasted that the peak power demand in the second week of this month will reach 91,700 to 95,700 MW, indicating that electricity demand will be most concentrated this summer. The supply reserve capacity is estimated to be between 5.2 and 9.2 GW, the lowest in the past five years, and the supply reserve rate is expected to be only 5.4 to 10.0%.

Since the supply reserve capacity fell below double digits earlier than expected at the beginning of last month, there is a possibility that the record will be broken during the power peak period next week, triggering an emergency alert.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said, "We have secured an additional reserve resource of about 9.2 GW to ensure stable supply in preparation for the surge in electricity demand," and urged "energy-saving efforts at homes and workplaces and the staggered vacation schedules of company employees."

Maximum Power Supply and Demand Status Over 10 Years. Source: Korea Power Exchange

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.