[Insight & Opinion] As Yoon's Approval Ratings Decline, He Should Learn from Kennedy's Leadership

[Asia Economy] It has already been over two months since the new government took office. Various public opinions on the president's approval rating for state affairs show that positive evaluations are declining while negative evaluations are rising. With warning signs lit regarding state administration, reasonable measures are necessary to prevent the loss of momentum in governance. In particular, since President Yoon's appointments have been controversial as ‘Seoyuknam (Seoul National University-60s-male)’ appointments and ‘Prosecutor Republic’ appointments, it is essential to escape the trap of ‘groupthink,’ which is a foreseeable side effect of decision-making.

The characteristic of Yoon Seok-yeol’s first cabinet is closer to ‘Seoyuknam’ rather than ‘balanced appointments’ or ‘integrative appointments.’ Including Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, the average age of the 19 members is over 60, and 10 out of 19 are graduates of Seoul National University, half of whom graduated from Seoul National University Law School. President Yoon’s first cabinet was filled with ‘people he knows well’ and ‘people he has worked with before.’ For example, the Minister of the Interior and Safety is a direct junior from high school and university, the Minister of Health and Welfare is a ‘40-year acquaintance,’ and the Minister of Unification is a senior who studied for the bar exam together, highlighting private connections.

The characteristic of personnel policies united by homogeneity is academically called groupthink. This concept originated from the 1972 book “Victims of Groupthink” by American psychologist Irving Janis. Janis conceptualized groupthink to mean that in elite advisory groups with a strong leader like the president and strong homogeneity and cohesion among followers, rational discussions on diverse opinions are lacking, which can lead to absurd conclusions. He warned that conclusions reached by a homogenized groupthink can cause major accidents (集團事故), resulting in policies and judgments disconnected from the people, putting the president and government at risk.

Groupthink refers to the phenomenon in decision-making where it becomes difficult to voice opposing opinions that go against the highest decision-maker’s will. In other words, it is an irrational decision-making style where consensus is reached under the pressure of conformity called unanimity, without sufficient discussion during the decision-making process.

Yoon Seok-yeol’s first cabinet is led by graduates of Seoul National University Law School, making it highly likely to fall into the trap of groupthink. What are the ways to avoid this? First, it is necessary to learn lessons from former U.S. President John F. Kennedy. Kennedy is a legendary figure who fell into and escaped from the trap of groupthink.

In April 1961, he trained 1,400 Cuban exiles to overthrow Fidel Castro’s Cuban regime and launched the Bay of Pigs invasion, but it ended in a disastrous failure within three days, with about 100 dead and 1,200 captured. The invasion decision, made by Kennedy and his close-knit group of Harvard alumni including the Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, and National Security Advisor, was a typical result of groupthink that did not consider opposing opinions or the possibility of failure.

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy faced the situation with a completely different leadership style. Learning from the warning of groupthink in the Bay of Pigs invasion, he formed a crisis response team with diverse opinion groups and succeeded in responding. Kennedy instructed his younger brother, Attorney General Robert Kennedy, and presidential advisor Theodore Sorensen to take on the role of ‘devil’s advocate,’ who would critically challenge ideas. He involved hawks and doves in the crisis response team, and after discussions, chose a third option, ‘blockade,’ instead of ‘ignore’ or ‘attack.’ President Yoon should also appoint critics like Kennedy to escape from crises.

Professor Chae Jin-won, Kyung Hee University Public Governance Research Institute

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