Turning Point in the Ukraine War Approaches in September... Putin Awaits the Cold [Global Focus]

Gas Supply Pressure Ahead of European Heating Season in September
Russia Contacts Iran and Saudi Arabia in Middle East... Strengthening Collusion
US $40 Billion Support for Ukraine Also Ends in September

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The ongoing war in Ukraine, which has lasted for five months since February, is expected to reach a critical turning point in September. From September, the demand for natural gas for heating in Europe is expected to surge, maximizing Russia's resource weaponization strategy, and the U.S. military and financial support under the Ukraine Support Act will also come to an end.

Russia is also trying to take full advantage of this situation by conducting close diplomacy with Middle Eastern countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia, engaging in energy price collusion. Additionally, it is expected to forcibly hold a referendum on the annexation of the occupied Ukrainian territories to Russia in connection with the local elections scheduled in Russia in September.

The Ukrainian government strongly opposes Russia's plan to forcibly hold the referendum, but if support from the U.S. and the West decreases, maintaining the front line will become impossible. Ultimately, there are concerns that once U.S. support ends, Ukraine will have to accept a ceasefire negotiation with Russia, which would involve territorial division.

◆Heating from September... Europe Divided Over Gas Reduction

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

The European Union (EU) proposed a plan for member states to reduce natural gas consumption by 15% to counter Russia's weaponization of natural gas, but opposition is already growing. Spain and Greece have declared their opposition to the plan, and Hungary has requested Russia to increase gas supply, raising concerns that the EU's coordinated sanctions against Russia could collapse.

According to the Associated Press on the 21st (local time), the governments of Spain and Greece declared that they would not support the EU's proposal to reduce gas consumption by 15%. These countries argue that since their dependence on Russian gas is lower than other EU member states, they cannot reduce consumption at the same rate as others.

Teresa Ribera, Spain's Minister for the Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge, said in an interview with the AP, "We use much less Russian natural gas than other European countries, so it is unfair to require all countries to reduce consumption by 15% uniformly," adding, "No matter what happens, gas or electricity supply to Spanish households will not be interrupted."

In fact, dependence on Russian natural gas varies greatly among EU member states. According to Eurostat, the EU's statistical office, Spain's dependence on Russian gas was 10% last year, and Greece's was 38.4%, both below the EU average of 43%. In contrast, Central and Eastern European countries such as Germany (66%), Poland (54%), Hungary (95%), Bulgaria (75.2%), and the Czech Republic (100%) have dependence rates exceeding 50%. This is expected to further intensify the controversy over the EU's uniform mandatory 15% reduction plan.

The Hungarian government has directly requested Russia to increase gas supply, undermining the EU's sanctions against Russia. According to the AP, on the 21st, Hungarian Foreign Minister P?ter Szijj?rt? held talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow and requested an additional supply of about 700 million cubic meters of gas beyond the existing amount.

◆Russia Strengthens Close Diplomacy with Middle East... Price Collusion Intensifies

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Russia appears to be focusing on consolidating energy price collusion by conducting close diplomacy with Middle Eastern countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia. This is seen as an effort to maximize its resource weaponization strategy.

According to Russian TASS news agency on the 21st (local time), the Kremlin announced in a statement that President Putin had a phone call with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. During the call, Putin emphasized further coordination to maintain price stability within OPEC+ (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers), the Kremlin said.

This call drew particular attention as it took place just five days after U.S. President Joe Biden's visit to Saudi Arabia. Politico analyzed, "This call benefits both President Putin, who wants to show that Biden's visit has no impact on bilateral relations, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who wants to signal that Saudi Arabia will not move according to U.S. demands on oil prices."

Earlier, on the 19th, Putin visited Iran directly and held a trilateral summit with Iran and Turkey to discuss energy, food issues, and the Syrian civil war, among other Middle Eastern matters. Notably, Russia and Iran signed a natural gas development and investment contract worth $40 billion (approximately 52.3 trillion KRW).

◆U.S. Support Also Ends in September... Additional Support Uncertain

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

U.S. support for Ukraine will also conclude in September. Additional support would require new legislation, but with the November midterm elections approaching and President Biden's approval ratings plummeting, this is expected to be difficult.

According to CNN, the $40 billion worth of military and financial support under the Ukraine Support Act, signed by President Biden during his visit to South Korea on May 21, will end in September. After that, new budget allocations and legislation will be needed for further support.

However, within U.S. political circles, there is a prevailing view that additional support legislation will be difficult to even introduce amid worsening economic issues such as severe inflation. President Biden's approval rating has dropped to the low 30% range ahead of the November midterm elections.

According to a Quinnipiac University poll released on the 20th, President Biden's approval rating stood at 31%, marking a historic low. Additionally, 71% of respondents said they do not want Biden to run for re-election in 2024.

If Biden and the Democratic Party suffer a crushing defeat in the midterms, the Republican Party is likely to control both the Senate and the House. Within the Republican Party, public opinion is largely negative toward support for Ukraine, so if the Republicans take control of Congress, passing Ukraine support budget bills is expected to become even more difficult.

According to The Economist, a recent University of Maryland survey of Republican voters found that only 39% agreed to endure inflation to help Ukraine.

◆Russia Moves Toward Annexation of Occupied Ukrainian Territories

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Russia is expected to take advantage of this situation by holding large-scale referendums in the occupied Ukrainian territories in September to incorporate these areas into Russian territory.

John Kirby, Coordinator for Strategic Communications at the White House National Security Council (NSC), said at a press conference on the 19th, "Russia is planning to hold referendums similar to the forced annexation of Crimea in 2014 in the Ukrainian territories it currently occupies," adding, "There is a possibility that Russia will forcibly hold the referendums in connection with the September local elections."

According to the Associated Press, Russian forces established puppet governments in major occupied areas such as Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in May and have begun preparations for holding referendums. Petro Andriushchenko, advisor to the mayor of Mariupol, announced via Telegram on the 28th of last month that "Russia is reportedly planning to hold a referendum on September 11 to annex the Donetsk region."

The Ukrainian government strongly opposes Russia's plans, but as support from the U.S. and the West wanes, maintaining the front line will become difficult, and it is expected that Ukraine will eventually have to accept Russia's demands.

David Arakhamia, Ukraine's chief negotiator for peace talks with Russia, said in an interview with Voice of America (VOA) on the 19th of last month, "We will carry out counterattacks against Russia to gain a favorable position in future peace negotiations, but we plan to return to peace talks by the end of August." Ceasefire negotiations between Russia and Ukraine have not resumed since the fifth round, mediated by Turkey, broke down on March 29.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.