Next Year, the World's Most Populous Country Will Change from China to India

Global Population Growth Rate Hits Lowest Since 1950
Impact of Low Birth Rates, Aging Population, and Improved Medical Services
European Population Also Declines

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyun-jung] The global population growth rate has fallen below 1% for the first time since 1950. The main reasons cited are low birth rates in advanced countries and advances in medical technology.

On the 11th (local time), the United Nations (UN) released the "World Population Prospects 2022" report to mark "World Population Day," according to major media outlets including Bloomberg. World Population Day was established in 1989 by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) to commemorate the global population surpassing 5 billion.

According to the report, the population growth rates in 2020 and 2021 were below 1%, marking the lowest level in 70 years since World War II. Europe's population decreased by 744,000 in 2020 and by 1.4 million in 2021. This is also the largest decline since statistics began in 1950. Europe's population is expected to continue declining until 2100.

The global population is projected to reach approximately 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.9 billion by 2100. More than half of the expected population increase by 2050 is concentrated in countries such as Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized the role of improved medical services rather than declining birth rates, explaining that it is "the effect of extending life expectancy and dramatically reducing maternal and child mortality." However, the rising proportion of elderly people in many countries is expected to impact economic growth and public finances.

Regarding Europe's population decline, low birth rates were identified as the cause rather than COVID-19. John Wilmoth, Director of the UN Population Division in the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, stated, "For decades, almost all European countries have had significantly low fertility rates," adding, "This means there are not many young people."

Population decline has long been observed in Asia. Japan's population began decreasing in 2010, South Korea's in 2020, and China is also expected to see a decline starting this year. The report forecasts that China's population will decrease by about 6 million annually in the mid-2040s and that the annual decline will increase to 12 million by the late 2050s.

Aging is also expected to accelerate. The UN projects that by 2030, the global population aged 65 and over will exceed 1 billion, and the population aged 80 and over will surpass 210 million. Several countries, including Japan, Italy, and Germany, already have elderly populations exceeding 25% of their total population.

The global average life expectancy was 72.8 years as of 2019, with women at 73.8 years and men at 68.4 years. The total fertility rate (the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) was 2.3 in 2021, down from 5 in 1950, halving over the period.

China ranked first in population with 1.4486 billion people, followed by India with 1.407 billion. However, the UN predicts that India will surpass China to become the most populous country next year.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.