What Does Japan's Constitutional Amendment with Abe Mourning Support and a Two-Thirds Majority in Seats Mean?

NHK Exit Poll Results: Pro-Amendment Forces Secure Two-Thirds of Seats
'Constitution to Specify Possession of Self-Defense Forces,' Abe's Long-cherished Amendment Goal
If Two-Thirds Quorum Is Met, Amendment Proposal and Voting Expected to Accelerate

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Hyunjung] In the House of Councillors election held on the 10th, the ruling party and other pro-constitutional amendment forces secured two-thirds of the seats. The atmosphere of mourning for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was fatally shot two days before the election, is evaluated to have influenced voters at the polls.

The local public broadcaster NHK announced exit poll results with this content immediately after voting ended at 8 p.m. on the day. This election was to newly elect half of the total 248 seats in the House of Councillors, 125 seats (including 1 by-election seat). NHK predicted that among the 125 seats, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) would secure 59 to 69 seats, and the Komeito Party 10 to 14 seats. The two ruling parties combined were expected to secure 69 to 83 seats.

The term for House of Councillors members is six years, and about half of the members are elected every three years. Among the seats not up for election this time, the ruling parties hold 70 seats (LDP 56 seats, Komeito 14 seats). According to NHK exit poll results, after the election, the ruling parties are expected to hold 139 to 153 of the total 248 seats in the House of Councillors, maintaining a majority. Among the newly elected seats, Nippon Ishin no Kai is predicted to secure 10 to 15 seats, and the Democratic Party for the People 2 to 5 seats.

The most significant aspect of this election is the advance of the 'pro-amendment forces.' Four ruling and opposition parties favorable to constitutional revision?LDP, Komeito, Nippon Ishin no Kai, and the Democratic Party for the People?have maintained more than the two-thirds quorum required for constitutional amendment.

The constitutional amendment was a long-cherished goal of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This involves revising Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, also known as the Peace Constitution.

Article 9, Paragraph 1 of the Constitution states, "Aspiring sincerely to an international peace based on justice and order, the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes." Paragraph 2 states, "In order to accomplish the aim of the preceding paragraph, land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized." Former Prime Minister Abe argued that the relevant provisions should be revised to allow Japan to possess the 'Self-Defense Forces' as a military force focused on defense roles.

With the pro-amendment forces holding more than two-thirds of the parliament, the political circles and local media scenarios that a constitutional review committee will be convened in both the House of Representatives and the House of Councillors, leading to a constitutional amendment proposal in 2024 and a referendum in 2025, have gained momentum.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.