This Summer's Power Usage Expected to Reach Record High of 95.7GW... Government Says "Conditions Are Not Easy"

Maximum Power Demand Forecast Up 5.0% YoY
Power Surplus 5.2GW... Lowest in 5 Years
Government Secures Additional 9.2GW Reserve Resources
Deputy Minister Park Il-jun: "Full Effort on Power Supply and Demand"

On the 19th, when the announcement on the electricity rate hike was imminent, an electric meter installed in a residential area in Seoul was seen. As prices of major daily necessities and energy soar across the board, and even public utility rates such as electricity, water, and gas increase, these have become key factors driving rapid inflation, deepening concerns for inflation authorities. If the government accepts Korea Electric Power Corporation's request for an electricity rate hike, there are concerns that the consumer price inflation rate, which has already recorded the mid-5% range, could exceed 6%. Photo by Kim Hyun-min kimhyun81@

[Asia Economy Sejong=Reporter Dongwoo Lee] This summer, early heatwaves are expected to cause electricity demand to soar to record-high levels. On the other hand, electricity supply capacity is expected to remain similar to previous years, leaving a power reserve margin of only 5.2GW, far below the safe threshold, raising concerns about supply and demand instability.

The Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced on the 30th that it reviewed and finalized the "Summer Electricity Supply and Demand Outlook and Measures" at the 2nd National Policy Issue Inspection and Coordination Meeting chaired by the Prime Minister. The electricity supply and demand management period this year is from July 4 to September 8. The ministry projected the maximum electricity demand this summer to be 91.7GW based on August estimates, with an upper estimate of 95.7GW. This is 5.0% higher than last year's peak demand of 91.1GW.

Meanwhile, the supply capacity for the second week of August, when maximum demand is expected, is forecasted to be 100.9GW, similar to last year's 100.7GW. In this case, the minimum reserve margin would be 5.2GW, and if this forecast materializes, an emergency electricity supply and demand stage could be declared. This is the lowest reserve margin recorded in the past five summers. Past summer reserve margins were 7.1GW in 2018, 6.1GW in 2019, 8.9GW in 2020, and 9.6GW in 2021.

Generally, the industry considers a reserve margin of 10GW and a reserve rate of 10% as the minimum threshold for stable power supply. When the reserve margin is low, the possibility of a power crisis due to unexpected generator shutdowns or abnormal temperatures exceeding forecasts cannot be ruled out. This month alone, the power supply reserve margin fell below 10GW on four days, and on the 23rd, it dropped to 7.9GW (reserve rate 9.5%) for the first time this year.

The unstable reserve margin is due to expected higher electricity demand this summer because of above-average temperatures, while supply has not significantly increased. The ministry stated, "Although nuclear power plant operations have increased, the retirement and maintenance of aging coal power plants have impacted supply," adding, "Compared to recent summer performances, the reserve margin is at its lowest level, necessitating additional reserve resource acquisition and demand management."

The ministry has secured an additional 9.2GW of reserve resources to prepare for the surge in electricity demand. These additional reserves are not normally operated but can be mobilized when the reserve margin exceeds the minimum threshold to prevent disruptions in electricity supply and demand. The ministry expects that with the deployment of these reserve resources, the minimum electricity reserve rate this year will rise above the forecasted 5.4%.

Furthermore, voluntary demand reduction, phased operation of new facilities such as Shin Hanul Unit 1 during commissioning, and increased generator output will be implemented to secure reserve margins in a timely manner. 280 public institutions will comply with appropriate indoor temperatures and focus on inspecting energy usage, including partial lighting shutdowns. Additional energy-saving measures, such as sequential shutdowns of air conditioners, are also being prepared in case of a power supply crisis.

Park Il-jun, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, said, "Since the electricity supply and demand conditions this summer are challenging, we will make every effort with utmost determination to ensure that the public experiences no inconvenience in electricity use," and requested, "The industrial sector should stagger vacations around the second week of August, and households and commercial facilities should maintain an appropriate indoor temperature of 26 degrees Celsius."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.