Kim Jong-un, The Level of Message in the 7th Nuclear Test Changes the Situation on the Korean Peninsula

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo In-ho] Attention in diplomatic circles is focused on whether Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, will deliver a message related to the 7th nuclear test at the expanded meeting of the Party Central Military Commission.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

This is because, depending on Kim's message, South Korea, the U.S., and the trilateral alliance of South Korea-U.S.-Japan are highly likely to formulate countermeasures against North Korea's nuclear threat.

On the 22nd, the Korean Central News Agency reported that the 3rd expanded meeting of the 8th Central Military Commission of the Party was held the previous day with Kim Jong-un in attendance. This meeting was held for the first time in a year since the 2nd expanded meeting of the 8th Central Military Commission in June last year.

The agency explained that the meeting reviewed and evaluated the overall national defense projects for the first half of this year and finalized the immediate defense construction tasks. The agency stated, "Issues to thoroughly implement the Party's military line and major defense policies are placed on the agenda."

This meeting is drawing attention because it coincides with the point in time when North Korea is understood to have completed preparations for the 7th nuclear test, leaving only Kim Jong-un's decision.

Military and intelligence authorities assess that North Korea has completed preparations for the nuclear test and that only Kim Jong-un's decision remains. Minister of Unification Kwon Young-se also said at a press briefing the day before that preparations for the nuclear test are complete, but the exact timing of execution "could happen suddenly or might extend beyond March next year."

Accordingly, attention is focused on whether Kim Jong-un will issue a decision and related directives on the nuclear test through this meeting while continuing military provocations such as intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches.

Jung Sung-jang, head of the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute, said, "Just as Kim Jong-un held the first expanded meeting of the Party Central Military Commission after taking power in early February 2013 and then forcibly conducted a nuclear test on the 13th of the same month, it is expected that the 7th nuclear test will be carried out soon after this expanded meeting," adding, "Only Kim Jong-un's resolve remains."

Furthermore, Kim Jong-un is expected to evaluate the military demonstrations of the first half of the year at this meeting. Considering that North Korea announced at this expanded meeting that it would summarize the overall national defense projects for the first half of 2022, discussions are expected regarding evaluations and deployment plans for the hypersonic missiles, cruise missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles, new ICBMs, new tactical guided weapons, SLBMs, and super-large multiple rocket launchers tested this year.

In this process, there is also a possibility that North Korea will showcase its weapons development achievements, conscious of South Korea's scientific and technological capabilities highlighted by the successful launch of the Korean launch vehicle Nuri (KSLV-II) the day before.

As the COVID-19 situation has revealed comprehensive problems within the military, measures to establish internal discipline are also expected to be introduced.

Diplomatic experts view the situation on the Korean Peninsula as unpredictable, as South Korea and the U.S. will adjust their North Korea response strategies depending on the level of Kim Jong-un's message.

The Choson Sinbo, the organ of the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (Chongryon), which represents North Korea's position, also threatened on the same day, stating, "The strong-on-strong phase for defending national sovereignty in Korea is a period of continuously strengthening the power to suppress and subjugate the greatest enemy," and warned, "If military strong-on-strong continues, it could trigger unpredictable situations."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.