Audit Board: "Labor Shortage in New Industries Such as AI by 2030"

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[Asia Economy Reporter Baek Kyunghwan] The Board of Audit and Inspection has released an analysis indicating that by 2030, university graduates in new industry sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI) will fall short of market demand. Given that President Yoon Suk-yeol is currently strengthening the cultivation of talent in new industries like semiconductors, there is a call for prompt support measures.

On the 16th, the Board of Audit and Inspection announced in its report "Response to Population Structure Changes V: Expansion of the Workforce," which audited the Ministry of Economy and Finance, Ministry of Employment and Labor, and Ministry of Science and ICT, that "by 2030, the number of graduates in 17 new technology fields across three sectors is expected to be insufficient compared to workforce demand."

The sectors analyzed for this workforce supply and demand forecast include the digital sector, which encompasses artificial intelligence and cybersecurity; the industrial technology sector, which includes secondary batteries and advanced materials; and the environment and bio sector, covering renewable energy and bio-health. The Board of Audit and Inspection added, "Since the scale of potential university entrants is rapidly decreasing, it is necessary to consider the possibility of changes in admission quotas for related departments in the future."

In particular, the Board analyzed that when the Ministry of Employment and Labor forecasts medium- to long-term workforce supply and demand in domestic industries, it does not take into account factors such as industry size, income level changes, technological innovation, or product demand changes, instead estimating based on the current number of employed persons. This inevitably leads to the perception that workforce demand never exceeds supply. Collaborating with the Korea Employment Information Service, the Board independently estimated workforce demand and supply across all industries, forecasting that the first reversal between demand and supply will occur in 2034, with a total shortage of 370,000 workers expected by 2035.

By age group, demand is predicted to exceed supply starting in 2027 for the youth group (ages 15?29) and from 2024 for the middle-aged group (ages 30?54). By 2035, the youth workforce is expected to be short by approximately 620,000, and the middle-aged workforce by about 2.46 million. The Board of Audit and Inspection explained, "This suggests the necessity of formulating workforce expansion strategies in new industries where the youth workforce constitutes a high proportion."

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