"Stability Argument by People Power vs. Check-and-Balance Argument by Democratic Party"…Local Elections at Stake for Political Leadership

Direction of Yoon Suk-yeol Government's Early National Leadership at Stake
Fate of Political Heavyweights Lee Jae-myung, Ahn Cheol-soo, and Oh Se-hoon Hangs in the Balance

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] The June 1 local elections are now approaching the final results after the main vote. Depending on the outcome of the local elections, the political sphere is expected to be divided over which side will seize the lead in national governance. Although the ruling party, the People Power Party, is predicted to have an advantage based on polls conducted during the period when publishing poll results was prohibited, the key point to watch will be how well the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Korea, performs.

On the 1st, the day of the 8th nationwide simultaneous local elections, voters are casting their precious votes at the 5th polling station of Bukgajwa 2-dong, set up at the coffee shop SANMEAG in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

The outcome of this local election is expected to determine the direction of national governance between the ruling and opposition parties. The People Power Party, which narrowly won the presidential election by a margin of 0.7 percentage points, can secure national leadership if it achieves a significant victory in this local election. Moreover, since there are no major upcoming elections except for the parliamentary by-elections scheduled for April next year due to this year's local elections, this election inevitably becomes a crucial turning point for political leadership.

After the presidential election, the Democratic Party demonstrated the power of a party holding an overwhelming majority in the legislature by pushing through so-called prosecution reform laws such as the Criminal Procedure Act and the Prosecutors' Office Act. However, after the transition period and the inauguration of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration, the party showed a powerless stance during the handling of the second supplementary budget and personnel hearings. The direction of political leadership is expected to be decided based on the local election results. If the Democratic Party can achieve miraculous victories in competitive or disadvantaged areas beyond its strongholds in Honam and Jeju, it may strengthen its role as a check on national governance.

Conversely, the People Power Party, if it avenges its defeats in local and general elections from four years ago in this local election held immediately after the new administration's launch, can claim national leadership by emphasizing that it has public support despite being in the minority in the legislature. It is expected to try to overcome the current situation of a minority government by leveraging public opinion favoring giving initial support to the newly launched Yoon Seok-yeol government.

Political insiders have identified the consolidation of the Democratic Party's support base as a key variable in this election. Park Won-seok, former Policy Committee Chair of the Justice Party, said on a radio show, "The destructive power that the Democratic Party's enthusiastic supporters have shown in several recent nationwide elections was tremendous," adding, "The Democratic Party leadership revised its strategy at the last minute to appeal to its supporters, and how much this will mobilize the supporters will be a variable."

The fortunes of presidential candidates are also expected to diverge. Lee Jae-myung, the Democratic Party's general election campaign committee chairman and the party's presidential candidate in the last election, is running in the by-election for the Incheon Gyeyang-eul constituency, which became vacant due to Song Young-gil's candidacy for Seoul mayor. Initially, Lee planned to contest nationwide elections centered on the Incheon Gyeyang-eul district, but as public opinion worsened over time, he can no longer be confident of winning the by-election itself. Lee's election strategy, which envisioned securing a majority of metropolitan mayors nationwide including Incheon and the Seoul metropolitan area, has been damaged. Depending on the election results, Lee is expected to suffer political damage. Losing in Incheon Gyeyang-eul, a traditional opposition stronghold, would cause serious harm. Even if elected as a member of the National Assembly, failure to achieve results in the Incheon mayoral or overall local elections would make it difficult for him to secure party leadership and exercise influence over candidate nominations for the next general election through the party convention after the local elections. Professor Jang Sung-chul of Daegu Catholic University said on CBS Radio's Kim Hyun-jung News Show, "If Lee loses, his plan to run for party leader at the August party convention will fall apart," and "Lee's election outcome ultimately holds the key to the Democratic Party's survival."

On the 1st, the day of the 8th nationwide local elections, voters are casting their precious votes at the Namgajwa 2-dong 2nd polling station set up at Luma Vertex in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

Conversely, Ahn Cheol-soo, who chose to unify presidential candidates and then merge with the People Power Party before running in the Seongnam Bundang-gap parliamentary by-election, is expected to expand his influence significantly if he enters the legislature this time. Having decided to merge even at the cost of abandoning a multi-party system and new politics, Ahn is likely to take intermediate steps such as securing party leadership on his path toward the presidential goal.

Oh Se-hoon, the People Power Party's candidate for Seoul mayor, is also expected to expand his influence. Having won a landslide victory in last year's Seoul mayoral by-election and maintained a strong lead in polls for this election, Oh is expected to challenge the next presidential election after four years of managing Seoul city if he wins this election.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.