US Intelligence Agencies: "Putin Preparing for a Long-Term Conflict"

"No Change in Goal Beyond Donbas"
Draws the Line on Tactical Nuclear Use Possibility

Avril Haines, Director of the U.S. National Intelligence (DNI)
Photo by EPA Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Cho Hyun-ui] U.S. intelligence agencies have predicted that a ceasefire will be difficult even after the Donbas battle in relation to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Avril Haines, Director of National Intelligence (DNI), said at a U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the 10th (local time), "Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for a long-term war in Ukraine."

Regarding the Russian military's focus on eastern Donbas to compensate for their retreat from the Ukrainian capital Kyiv (Kiyev), Director Haines described it as "a temporary move to regain the initiative," adding, "Putin is still moving toward goals beyond Donbas. We assess that there is no change in his strategic objectives."

In other words, even if the Russian military wins the Donbas battle, they will continue the invasion of Ukraine. She warned, "Putin may face a situation in the coming months that is unpredictable and increasingly tense as he confronts the fact that his ambitions do not align with Russia's current military capabilities."

However, she said there are currently no signs of tactical nuclear weapon use. Scott Berrier, Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), said, "At present, we are not seeing (the possibility of tactical nuclear use)." Director Haines also explained, "Putin would only authorize nuclear use if Russia perceives a substantial threat, but there would be many steps before that."

They also diagnosed Russia's invasion of Ukraine as being in a stalemate. At the hearing, Director Berrier said, "Neither Russia nor Ukraine is winning," adding, "It is stuck in a kind of stalemate."

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