"US to Recover Jobs Lost to COVID-19 by August"

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Cho Hyun-ui] The United States, showing signs of economic recovery, is expected to make up for the job losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic by August.

International credit rating agency Fitch made this forecast in a report released on the 2nd (local time). Compared to the 6 years and 5 months it took to recover jobs after the 2008 global financial crisis, this is a relatively fast trend.

Fitch stated, "Currently, there are 1.6 million fewer jobs than in February 2020, just before the COVID-19 impact," and added, "If 400,000 jobs are added each month from this month through August, the target can be reached."

In March, new jobs numbered 431,000. The market expects that last month's new jobs will be around 405,000.

CNN reported, "Moody's also predicted that the job levels prior to COVID-19 would be recovered by the third quarter of this year."

However, according to Moody's, if the pre-COVID-19 employment growth rate had continued, there would be an estimated 4.5 million more jobs than currently, indicating that the current level is still far from that.

Concerns have also been raised about a 'hard landing' scenario, where the currently overheated job market and economy suddenly stop due to excessive inflation.

Fitch explained, "In 20 states, the ratio of job openings to unemployed persons reached the highest level since the spread of COVID-19 in February, indicating a severe labor shortage."

Low labor force participation rates due to COVID-19, high childcare costs, and early retirement are also pointed out as problems.

Fitch said, "Only eight states have fully recovered to pre-COVID-19 labor force participation levels," adding, "In Vermont, Maryland, and Nevada, the rates are more than 4 percentage points lower than before COVID-19."

CNN noted, "While the recent labor shortage has led to wage increases mainly for low-wage workers, which is positive for employment, there are concerns that this could worsen inflation."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.