[Opinion] What Use Is Gaining One Thing If You Lose Another?

The Yoon Suk-yeol administration will be inaugurated on the 10th. On the 21st, the South Korea-U.S. summit will be held in Seoul. This is the first test of the diplomatic and security team's capabilities under the Yoon administration.

However, since the summit will take place just 11 days after the inauguration, I hope there won't be too much pressure on achieving significant results. Upgrades can be made in subsequent meetings, and even just an update this time would be good. Rather, it will be interesting to see how much composure and independence they can demonstrate. Prioritizing the relationship with the U.S. is fine, but I hope they do not prioritize American primacy.

Given the nature of the new government, strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance is natural, but the approach should be cautious. Regarding the Quad, I hope participation will be gradual and step-by-step. Institutionalization is not urgent; what matters is that it adds value in terms of function and role. Even if institutional membership is achieved, if South Korea becomes a second India, the Quad will be regarded as a minus.

Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of North Korea, delivered a speech on April 25 at the 90th anniversary parade of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army, stating that they could use nuclear weapons if their fundamental interests are infringed upon, seemingly convinced that offense is the best defense. As North Korea shifts from a defensive posture on its nuclear program to a more offensive one, it is curious what kind of "silk pouch" they might have if there is a sudden shift to dialogue amid nuclear and missile provocations.

At this South Korea-U.S. summit, the U.S. will reaffirm its commitment to denuclearization and the defense of the Korean Peninsula, but complete denuclearization is practically off the table. Everyone knows, even without Guge's mind-reading, that the U.S. policy toward North Korea is strategic indifference. A realistic goal could be an agreement on a roadmap that includes a gradual implementation process aimed at establishing a permanent peace regime on the Korean Peninsula. The new diplomatic and security team has experience and lessons from the Lee Myung-bak administration. There is still a possibility of resuming dialogue after the new government and North Korea engage in a war of nerves.

The biggest concern in the new government's diplomacy is China. Park Jin, the nominee for Minister of Foreign Affairs, emphasized diplomacy toward China based on mutual respect, cooperation, national interest, and principles, criticizing the Moon Jae-in administration's "submissive diplomacy." While China's wolf warrior diplomacy must be corrected, diplomacy requires policy continuity, and trying to immediately fix existing grievances could provoke conflict.

The new government's China-South Korea relations could resemble the Moon Jae-in administration's South Korea-Japan relations. Even if not satisfactory, I hope they do not stir up trouble by scrapping the "three no's" of THAAD (no additional THAAD deployment, no participation in the U.S. missile defense system, no military alliance among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan). What use is it to gain one thing but lose another?

The next five years of China-South Korea relations depend on the 3Ds: that is, South Korea's gradual participation in the Quad, maintaining the THAAD "agreement," and a flexible approach to denuclearization (CVID). China would find it difficult to oppose if South Korea limits its Quad participation to economic and soft-issue cooperation without formalizing or institutionalizing it. If South Korea does not dismantle the settled THAAD and does not lean solely toward a hardline stance on North Korea, the basic framework of China-South Korea relations will hold.

Regarding the South China Sea issue, principles should be emphasized, but actions should be cautious. The new government's vision as a "global pivotal state contributing to freedom, peace, and prosperity" requires contributions to the international community, but the emphasis should not be placed solely on freedom. Emphasizing freedom can cause unnecessary confrontations with countries that have different ideologies and systems. Expanding options is national interest diplomacy and practical diplomacy. The new government’s diplomacy should be, in appearance, national prestige; in substance, national interest; and in method, practical diplomacy.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.