Sooeun "Q2 Exports Increase About 10% YoY"

"Possibility of Falling Short of Forecasts Due to Ukraine War and China Blockade"

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoo Je-hoon] Exports in the second quarter of this year are expected to increase by around 10% compared to the same period last year.

The Korea Eximbank Institute for Overseas Economic Research stated in its "2022 Q1 Export Performance Evaluation and Q2 Outlook" released on the 26th, "The export leading index has risen for six consecutive quarters compared to the same period last year, so a double-digit export growth rate is expected to be maintained."

According to the Eximbank, the export leading index has been rising for six consecutive quarters since Q2 of last year. The second quarter of this year is also predicted to increase by 14.4 percentage points compared to the previous year. The export leading index is an index created to predict the degree of export increase or decrease by synthesizing variables affecting exports such as the economic conditions of major export destinations, import volume for exports, order status by industry, and exchange rates.

An Eximbank official said, "Although export prices are rising, the export growth trend is expected to ease compared to the previous quarter due to the slowdown in the economic uptrend of major countries, a decrease in new manufacturing orders, and a reduction in the base effect."

However, the Eximbank believes that various external variables still remain. The Eximbank stated, "If the global supply chain disruption caused by the Ukraine war prolongs and exports to China shrink due to continued lockdowns in major cities caused by the spread of Omicron, the export growth rate may fall short of the forecast."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.