Reelected French President Macron Faces Challenge of Healing Divisions... June General Election as a Test (Comprehensive Report 2)

On the 24th (local time), when the runoff of the French presidential election was held, President Emmanuel Macron (right) visited Paris's Champ de Mars square with his wife Brigitte, raising his hand to greet supporters. [Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] French President Emmanuel Macron secured re-election by defeating far-right National Rally (RN) candidate Marine Le Pen in the runoff of the presidential election held on the 24th (local time). This marks the first time in 20 years since former President Jacques Chirac in 2002 that a French president has been re-elected. The presidential election, held under the same structure as five years ago, revealed severe divisions within French society. It foreshadows a thorny path ahead for Macron’s second term. With the parliamentary elections scheduled for June, some evaluations suggest that "there will be no honeymoon" for President Macron.

Gap Narrowed to Half in Five Years

According to the provisional election results released by the French Ministry of the Interior on the day, President Macron won with 58.55% of the vote, defeating Le Pen who received 41.45%. Macron and Le Pen faced off twice in presidential elections, in 2017 and this year, with the vote margin shrinking from 32 percentage points to 17 percentage points, roughly half. The runoff voter turnout was 72%, the lowest in 53 years since 1969’s 68.9%.

At 9:30 p.m. that day, President Macron visited Paris’s Champ de Mars square with his wife Brigitte Macron to declare victory. He said, "I know you voted for me not because you support my ideology, but to block the far-right ideology. I am no longer a candidate for one side. I am the president for all," signaling change.

Le Pen acknowledged her defeat but emphasized, "Achieving over 43% of the vote (estimated) itself is a brilliant victory," and pledged, "With energy, patience, and affection, I will continue to keep the promises made to France and the French people to prevent a minority from seizing power." She added, "The game is not over," vowing victory in the upcoming June parliamentary elections.

Relieved European Leaders

European leaders have issued a series of welcoming messages. This election took place at a time when European unity is crucial due to Russia’s airstrikes on Ukraine. There were significant concerns that if far-right, pro-Russian candidate Le Pen had won instead of centrist, pro-European Union (EU) President Macron, the political landscape in Europe would undergo major changes.

On the 24th (local time), in the runoff of the French presidential election, President Emmanuel Macron succeeded in his re-election, and supporters gathered near the Eiffel Tower in Paris, waving the French flag and the European Union (EU) flag.
[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted, "I am very pleased that we can continue our excellent cooperation," adding, "Together, we will move France and Europe forward." UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said, "France is one of our closest and most important allies," and expressed hope to "continue working together on the most important issues for our two countries and the world." German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated, "French voters have shown strong commitment to Europe today. I am glad we can continue our good cooperative relationship."

Markets also reacted with relief to President Macron’s re-election. On the day, the euro opened at $1.0844 in Sydney, Australia, up 0.5% from the previous session. The market had anticipated significant volatility if Le Pen had won, similar to the 2016 Brexit referendum and Donald Trump’s election as U.S. president.

First Test: June Parliamentary Elections

However, forecasts suggest that Macron’s second-term government will face difficulties from the start. The first challenge is the parliamentary elections scheduled for June. If the ruling party La R?publique En Marche! (LREM) fails to secure a majority in the National Assembly, it will have to cooperate with opposition parties to implement its policies. Given that Macron’s approval ratings have dropped significantly compared to five years ago and that LREM performed poorly in last year’s local elections, foreign media predict that securing a majority in the National Assembly is realistically impossible.

Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen of the National Rally (RN) in the French presidential runoff election [Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

There is a scenario where, despite winning the presidential election, President Macron may appoint the leader of the opposition party holding the majority as prime minister, starting an uneasy cohabitation. Jean-Luc M?lenchon, the far-left candidate of La France Insoumise (LFI) who placed third in the first round, has already called for left-wing unity during the runoff campaign period, stating he wants the prime minister position regardless of who becomes the next president. If left-wing parties control the parliament, opposition to Macron’s key pension reform policy is expected to be inevitable.

The far-right forces centered around Le Pen may also unite. ?ric Zemmour, a far-right candidate of Reconqu?te who placed fourth with 7.1% of the vote in the first round, emphasized far-right unity by calling on Le Pen to form a "patriotic bloc" after the runoff results were announced. Since Le Pen acknowledged defeat and expressed determination to win the June parliamentary elections, there is a strong possibility that the far-right camp will come together and speak with one voice.

Besides the parliamentary elections, President Macron must also wage a war against inflation. Following inflation increases due to COVID-19, energy and food prices have surged sharply due to the impact of the Ukraine war, focusing the French public’s attention on prices.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.