Macron vs Le Pen, Who Will Win... French Presidential Runoff Election Held Today

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Jeong Hyunjin] The runoff for the French presidential election will be held on the 24th (local time). While incumbent French President Emmanuel Macron is highly favored to win, attention is focused on whether Marine Le Pen, the far-right candidate from the National Rally (RN), will be able to muster a late surge. If President Macron succeeds in his re-election, he will become the first French president to serve a second term in 20 years since 2002, and if Le Pen wins, she will become the first female and far-right president of France.

According to the Associated Press and others on the 23rd, recent polls conducted in France show the gap in support between President Macron and candidate Le Pen ranging from 6 to 15 percentage points. Although some polls initially indicated a close race within 5 percentage points, after the TV debate on the 20th, Macron's support rose significantly compared to Le Pen, putting him ahead.

The key to this runoff is expected to be the undecided voters and abstentions. In the first round of voting held on the 10th, President Macron and candidate Le Pen received 27.85% and 23.15% of the votes respectively, so the direction of the votes from those who supported other candidates will likely determine the outcome. Accordingly, during the two weeks of campaigning, both candidates have been trying to attract the votes of supporters of far-left candidate Jean-Luc M?lenchon from La France Insoumise (LFI). M?lenchon received 21.95% of the vote in the first round, just 1.2 percentage points behind Le Pen. Locally, it is estimated that about 20% of voters have not yet decided whom to support.

The high abstention rate in this French presidential election is also expected to be a significant variable. The AP reported that the number of respondents saying they will not vote or will submit a blank ballot is at an all-time high. If voter turnout is low or there are many invalid votes, it could work against President Macron, who needs to absorb votes from the left-wing camp. The AP stated, "While President Macron is likely to win, there is a significant uncertainty due to abstentions."

This runoff is drawing even more attention as it takes place amid critical issues such as Russia's invasion of Ukraine and global inflation. Since the European Union (EU) is united in imposing sanctions on Russia, if candidate Le Pen, who has opposed the EU's stance, is elected, there is a high possibility of a shift in France's position.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.