[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Reasons Behind North Korea's Prospect of a '7th Nuclear Test'

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] There are growing speculations that North Korea’s recently developed new short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) might be a miniaturized ballistic missile capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads, raising concerns that it may proceed with a nuclear test. Miniaturization of nuclear weapons through nuclear testing is essential to carry out the threat of "using nuclear weapons against the South in case of emergency."

Our military assesses that while North Korea has accumulated a certain level of nuclear weapon technology, it is still insufficient for operational deployment. The 2020 Defense White Paper states only that it "appears to have reached a considerable level," indicating that it has not yet reached the level of major nuclear powers such as the United States, Russia, and China.

For North Korea to produce lightweight nuclear warheads aimed at the Korean Peninsula, successful miniaturization is necessary. A warhead with a diameter of 60cm and weight under 500kg, with a yield of several kilotons (kt; 1kt equals the explosive power of 1,000 tons of TNT), is required. This is because it must be mounted on the recently launched "North Korean version of the ATACMS" (KN-24) improved missile and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM).

On the 18th, the English edition of the state-run media Huanqiu Shibao, Global Times, citing military experts, said North Korea’s actions are a decisive signal that it can use nuclear weapons. Although South Korea has not responded immediately, it stated that the U.S. and South Korea need to discuss how to deal with this new development. Depending on the joint response, North Korea may proceed with a seventh nuclear test.

However, the U.S. response is firm. Ned Price, spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, said at a briefing on the 18th (local time), "North Korea continues to prioritize its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs, undermining regional and international security." He added, "In response to these provocations, we have taken diplomatic, economic, and military measures, either wholly or partially. Our actions are intended to make clear that North Korea’s provocations that escalate tensions will have corresponding consequences."

Internally, North Korea may also seek to strengthen cohesion by utilizing military provocations. Attention is focused on the fact that this coincides with the "90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army (Anti-Japanese Guerrilla Forces)" (April 25), when a military parade is expected to be held. Although the Armed Forces Day was changed to February 8 starting in 2018, this year marks the 90th anniversary of the Anti-Japanese Guerrilla Forces’ founding, a "jeongjunyun" (a milestone year occurring every 5 or 10 years). It is anticipated that North Korea will send a message through a military parade as well as military provocations.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.