[Global Focus] Germany-Russia: Close Yet Distant, A History of Anti-War Sentiment

The Most Devastating War Between Germany and the Soviet Union in WWII... Germany Broke the Non-Aggression Pact and Attacked First
In 1969, West German Chancellor Brandt Promoted Ostpolitik... Relations Continued for Economic Reasons
Russia's Trust Plummeted After Ukraine Invasion... Faith in Dialogue for Problem Solving Shattered

From the top left clockwise: Vladimir Putin, President of Russia; Willy Brandt, former Chancellor of West Germany; Gerhard Schr?der, former Chancellor of Germany; Angela Merkel, former Chancellor of Germany.
[Photo by Reuters]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] The Nazi-Soviet War (1941?1945) during World War II (1939?1945) is recorded as one of the most brutal wars in human history. Over 20 million Soviet citizens lost their lives in the Nazi-Soviet War, marking the largest human loss in history due to war. Moreover, the Nazi-Soviet War was initiated by Germany’s betrayal of Russia. Germany signed a non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union on August 23, 1939, and nine days later, on September 1, invaded Poland, triggering World War II. In 1941, Germany broke the non-aggression pact and invaded the Soviet Union. Although this ultimately led to Germany’s defeat, the human and material damage suffered by victorious Russia was immense.

The war in Ukraine has brought renewed attention to the relationship between Germany and Russia. Despite the enmity that might have been expected due to World War II, Germany economically cooperates closely with Russia, importing more crude oil and natural gas from Russia than other European countries.

Germany is the only country that has consistently opposed the European Union’s (EU) strong energy sanctions against Russia. Due to its relationship with Russia, Germany has shown a passive stance on sanctions against Russia, leading to criticism that Germany is the weak link in Europe’s sanctions against Russia.

◆ How did Germany become the ‘weak link’? = The reason Germany was able to grow closer to Russia after World War II lies in the Ostpolitik (Eastern Policy) that began in the late 1960s.

Ostpolitik refers to the policy of reconciliation with communist countries adopted by Willy Brandt, the first Social Democratic Party (SPD) member to become Chancellor of West Germany, after his inauguration in 1969.

Brandt is the figure in the iconic photo kneeling before the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising Memorial in Poland, symbolizing Germany’s apology for its past. Brandt promoted Ostpolitik based on the principle of ‘change through rapprochement (Wandel durch Ann?herung),’ advocated by his political ally Egon Bahr. Ostpolitik laid the groundwork for German reunification in 1990. German reunification became another opportunity for improving relations between Germany and Russia. Many Germans believed that the openness and reform policies initiated by Soviet Communist Party General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev were another background factor for reunification.

Former West German Chancellor Willy Brandt is kneeling and apologizing in front of the Jewish Memorial in Warsaw, Poland, on December 7, 1970.
Photo by Yonhap News

Germany’s conciliatory policy continued across different administrations. Former Chancellor Gerhard Schr?der (SPD) took a position as an advisor for Nord Stream, a project of the Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom, immediately after leaving office and has served as a Gazprom board member until recently. He has faced criticism for maintaining his position even after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Former Chancellor Angela Merkel, from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), also maintained a pro-Russian stance. Merkel, who was from East Germany, spoke Russian and maintained a friendly relationship with President Vladimir Putin during her tenure. Merkel led the Nord Stream 2 project, which involved a total construction cost of 12 trillion won. Nord Stream 2 is a 1,225 km-long undersea gas pipeline directly connecting Narva in western Russia through the Baltic Sea to Greifswald in northern Germany. Once completed, Germany would be able to receive natural gas from Russia cheaply and stably. However, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 has been halted without approval.

◆ Over 50 years of continued relations = The main reason Germany has maintained a relatively friendly relationship with Russia appears to be economic.

Germany is rich in coal and iron ore but lacks oil and is nearly depleted of natural gas. Cheap Russian oil and natural gas were essential for the German economy. Russia’s economy depends heavily on oil and gas exports. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), 45% of the Russian federal budget in 2021 came from oil and natural gas exports. From Russia’s perspective, Germany was a large, nearby market that could not be overlooked.

According to Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, about 65% of the gas consumed in Germany in 2020 was of Russian origin, significantly higher than the EU average of 40%. In 2010, only 36% of the gas consumed in Germany was Russian. The proportion of Russian gas increased sharply after the opening of Nord Stream 1, a gas pipeline directly connecting Russia and Germany, in 2011. Germany continued gas trade with Russia even after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014.

However, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, analysts say the Ostpolitik policy that lasted over 50 years has come to an end.

Notably, on February 27, just three days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Germany would provide weapons to Ukraine, a symbolic event. As a former war criminal country, Germany had long strictly controlled arms exports. Andreas Kluth, former editor-in-chief of the German economic newspaper Handelsblatt, wrote in a Bloomberg op-ed that Putin had sparked a revolution in Germany. Kluth diagnosed that Germany’s long-held belief that dialogue and reconciliation based on Ostpolitik would lead to better relations with Russia was mistaken.

◆ Energy trade halt... Impact on Germany and Russia = If Germany’s breaking of the Nazi-Soviet non-aggression pact during World War II was a betrayal of Russia, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can be interpreted as a betrayal of Germany’s belief that problems could be solved through dialogue.

The cost of betrayal for Germany is expected to be as large as the share of Russian energy in the German economy. Since the EU has declared energy independence from Russia, Germany must immediately reduce its imports of Russian gas and oil significantly and prepare long-term plans to completely cut off trade. On the 6th, Robert Habeck, Germany’s Vice Chancellor and Minister for Economic Affairs and Climate Action, proposed a new energy policy to the coalition government. Habeck suggested increasing Germany’s renewable energy ratio to 80% by 2030 and nearly 100% by 2035.

Russia is also expected to suffer significant economic damage if it loses the European market, including Germany. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as of October last year, 49% of Russia’s crude oil exports were shipped to OECD countries in Europe. For natural gas, three-quarters of export volumes were destined for Europe.

There is also analysis that China will emerge as an alternative to Europe in the future. However, China’s current annual gas consumption is 331 billion cubic meters, which does not reach Europe’s 541 billion cubic meters. China’s gas consumption is expected to approach Europe’s current level at 526 billion cubic meters only by 2030. China and Russia began construction of the first gas pipeline connecting the two countries, the Power of Siberia, in 2014. Some sections opened in 2019, and with full completion expected in 2025, Russia is anticipated to export 38 billion cubic meters of gas annually to China.

Due to Western sanctions, Russia has found it difficult to purchase equipment and technology necessary for oil production. Fernando Ferreira, an analyst at Rapidan Energy, a consulting firm based in Washington, U.S., said, “If Russia cannot use Western technology, it will be difficult to maintain oil production levels.” Regarding gas, Russia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) production capacity lags far behind other countries, so Russia has no choice but to rely on pipeline exports, which remains a concern for Russia.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.