[AKyeong Poll] Seoul Mayor Race Focuses on Candidates Over Party... Oh Leads in Both Two-Party and Multi-Party Contests

Candidate Suitability Multi-Candidate Race
Oh 42.3% vs Song 14.4%
Clear No.1 in Approval Ratings

"Evaluated as performing well administratively for 1 year
Seems not to feel the need for replacement"

[Asia Economy Reporters Juyoun Oh, Hyunju Lee, Juni Park] In the June 1 local elections for Seoul mayor, similar to the Gyeonggi governor race, the 'personality factor' is expected to dominate. This is because Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon’s approval rating remains high regardless of party support.

According to a public opinion poll conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Asia Economy from June 4 to 5, surveying 1,015 men and women aged 18 and over residing in Seoul (90% mobile, 10% landline, automated response), Mayor Oh led the suitability rating for the next Seoul mayor candidate with 42.3% support, securing a commanding first place. The runner-up was former Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil with only 14.4% support, nearly three times lower than Mayor Oh. Following were former Minister of SMEs and Startups Park Young-sun (11.9%), Democratic Party lawmaker Park Joo-min (8.5%), former lawmaker Na Kyung-won (5.2%), and former Presidential Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok (5.1%).

Mayor Oh also won in all hypothetical matchups against Democratic Party candidates. Against Song Young-gil, the top Democratic candidate with 36.7% suitability, Oh received 50.4% support, leading by 13.7 percentage points. He led by 12.3 points over second-place Park Young-sun (37.6%) with 49.9% support. Against former Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok (34.0%), Oh led by 17.4 points, garnering support from over half of voters (51.4%).

The overwhelming support for Mayor Oh is analyzed to reflect high evaluations of his administrative capabilities over the past year since the April by-election last year, as well as expectations for continued achievements.

Political commentator Lee Jong-hoon explained, "Although the approval rating is lower than the 57.50% he received in last year’s by-election, the general assessment that he is doing well means there is no perceived need to replace him." He added, "Being the incumbent and the environmental factor of the post-presidential election period, along with personal capabilities, gives him an advantage over the Democratic Party. I believe his chances of re-election in June are high."

Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, also said, "Since personality is important in this region, Mayor Oh, who is the top conservative candidate and a potential next presidential candidate, is showing an overwhelming lead." He predicted, "Since President-elect Yoon won the presidential election by a margin of 4.83 percentage points, this trend is likely to continue through the June local elections."

The Democratic Party remains highly cautious about Mayor Oh’s dominant lead but holds onto hope that the atmosphere may change after the primary. Despite internal conflicts over candidate selection for Seoul mayor, they expect competitiveness to re-emerge as the general election approaches.

On this day, former leader Song Young-gil was reported to officially register as a candidate for metropolitan government heads through the central party. Although there is strong opposition within the party to the ‘Song Young-gil draft theory,’ it is interpreted that he has firmly decided to run in the challenging Seoul mayor race with a spirit of putting the party first and to take responsible roles until the end.

Democratic Party lawmaker Park Yong-jin said in a phone interview, "Current polls are not very meaningful. Mayor Oh also had single-digit support in last year’s by-election and only defeated Na Kyung-won about a month before the election when the issue surfaced." He emphasized, "Considering the rapidly changing situations that occur during elections, it is still possible for the Democratic Party to win."

Lawmaker Kim Min-seok, who voiced opposition to the Song Young-gil draft theory within the party, also said in a phone interview, "Mayor Oh’s slight lead is natural because he is the incumbent and it is right after the presidential victory." He added, "Since the election is still two months away, things can definitely change."

◆ How the survey was conducted = This survey was commissioned by Asia Economy and conducted by Realmeter over two days, June 4 and 5. Calls were attempted to 80,938 voters aged 18 and over residing in Seoul, with 1,015 completing the survey, yielding a response rate of 1.3%. The survey used automated response methods with 90% mobile and 10% landline calls, employing random digit dialing sampling frames. Statistical adjustments were made using rim weighting based on gender, age group, and region according to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety’s resident registration population statistics as of the end of March 2022. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For detailed survey information, refer to the Realmeter website or the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.