Yoon Elected President Faces Test on North Korea Policy

Road 'Gangdaegang' Returns to the Korean Peninsula
Yoon's Hardline Card Inevitable
Experts "Must Strengthen ROK-US Cooperation Quickly"

[Asia Economy reporters Inho Yoo, military specialist Nakgyu Yang, and Jieun Lee] North Korea carried out an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch on the 24th, crossing the 'red line' for the first time in 4 years and 4 months with an ultra-high-stakes provocation. This has put the incoming President Yoon Suk-yeol's North Korea and foreign policies to the test even before his inauguration. Amid domestic regime change and the intensifying US-Russia and US-China confrontations following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the international situation is shifting. With Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, showcasing nuclear and missile capabilities, a strong confrontation phase is expected to be inevitable for the time being. If North Korea continues its provocations, President-elect Yoon is highly likely to adopt a hardline stance on North Korea and foreign policy after his inauguration on May 10, including responses within the framework of the South Korea-US alliance and strengthening sanctions.

◆Resolute President-elect Yoon, Hardline Card Inevitable=After receiving news of North Korea's ICBM launch on the 24th, President-elect Yoon and the Presidential Transition Committee have taken a firm stance. On the 25th, Yoon issued a public warning via social media (SNS), stating, "We sternly warn North Korea. There is nothing to gain from provocations." Earlier, the Transition Committee strongly condemned the launch in a statement on the 24th, saying, "This ballistic missile launch breaks the moratorium promised by North Korea in 2018 and is a serious provocation threatening our security by directly violating UN Security Council resolutions."

In this context, it is anticipated that President-elect Yoon will choose a hardline approach for North Korea and foreign policy. With expectations that North Korea will continue high-intensity provocations around the upcoming South Korea-US joint military exercises and the birthday of President Kim Il-sung (April 15), this could influence the direction of Yoon's policies. It is also expected that this issue will be raised during a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping scheduled for the afternoon of the same day.

President-elect Yoon is expected to discuss North Korea's ICBM issue with US President Joe Biden after dispatching Park Jin, head of the US special envoy team, in early next month, and then prioritize the North Korea issue at the South Korea-US summit in May.

In diplomatic circles, it is pointed out that the security concerns at the end of President Moon Jae-in's term have increased due to North Korea's ICBM launch, weakening the justification for the importance of a "stern security posture" that arose from the controversy over relocating the presidential office with President-elect Yoon. President Moon's immediate convening of an emergency NSC meeting and strong condemnation of North Korea after being briefed on the missile launch the previous day is interpreted as a move conscious of such criticism. Regarding his mention of "breaking the moratorium" and "strong condemnation" at this meeting, it is evaluated that the tone was stronger than his remarks at the emergency NSC plenary meeting when North Korea launched a medium-range ballistic missile on January 30.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆Korean Peninsula Returns to Winter=Experts point out that the Korean Peninsula is inevitably placed in a 'strong-against-strong' confrontation phase for the time being. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said, "By publicly announcing the successful launch of the Hwasong-17 and citing the justification of strengthening self-defensive nuclear war deterrence, the security clock on the Korean Peninsula has returned to 2017," adding, "In the changed environment, North Korea is turning back the clock to 2017 to pressure South Korea and the US and secure the initiative for a new nuclear negotiation framework."

In the short term, tensions will peak next month as the Day of the Sun (April 15, Kim Il-sung's birthday) coincides with the South Korea-US joint military exercises. However, since tensions are likely to continue rising even after the new government takes office, there are calls for urgent discussions at the South Korea-US level to establish a new roadmap for North Korea. Hong Min, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "There is a need to hold the South Korea-US summit more quickly," adding, "We need to quickly show strengthened South Korea-US cooperation to North Korea to somewhat restrain its actions."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆South Korea and US Respond Firmly to Additional North Korean Provocations=Our government has entered a response posture together with the United States. South Korea and the US plan to deploy US strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula if North Korea launches additional ICBMs. The Ministry of National Defense reportedly reported this to the Presidential Transition Committee. Through the expanded deterrence strategy consultation body (EDSCG) between South Korea and the US, which was suspended under the current administration, discussions will be held on the permanent rotational deployment and deployment of US strategic assets.

US Navy aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships may gather in nearby waters of the Korean Peninsula to increase pressure. Currently, it is understood that two US Navy aircraft carriers and one amphibious assault ship are deployed in the Western Pacific. Alongside this, our military began a solo training exercise using F-35A stealth fighters on the same day. While South Korea and the US have conducted joint exercises simultaneously before, it is unusual for the South Korean military to deploy only F-35A stealth fighters for a large-scale solo training exercise.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.