"10 Million Citizens Infected... 'Herd Immunity' Still a Distant Talk"

COVID-19 Prevention and Medical Experts' 5 Perspectives
Infection Rate Abroad Decreased After 20%
Opinions Divided on Peak of Outbreak
Vaccination Effectiveness for Under 11 Already Late
Vaccination Essential for High-Risk Children

As the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in South Korea surpassed 10 million, the number of confirmed cases is displayed in a graph on the monitor at Songpa District Office in Seoul on the morning of the 23rd.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

On Wednesday the 23rd, after the weekend effect ended, the number of new COVID-19 cases in South Korea once again exceeded 490,000. This is the second highest figure following 620,000 cases on the 17th. Although the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases in the country has surpassed 10 million and over 86% of the population has completed their second vaccine dose, experts point out that it is still too early to talk about 'herd immunity.'

"The pandemic will continue for the time being"

Over the past two years and two months, one in five citizens has experienced COVID-19 infection, but it remains unknown how many more infections are needed to stop the pandemic. As the virus spreads through the Delta variant, followed by Omicron, and then Stealth Omicron, variables have emerged in both the scale of the outbreak and the timing of its peak.

Professor Eom Jung-sik, an infectious disease specialist at Gachon University Gil Medical Center, said, "Typically, when a large infectious disease outbreak occurs and a certain proportion of the population develops antibodies due to many confirmed cases, transmission is blocked and the outbreak diminishes. However, in the current COVID-19 situation, the term 'herd immunity' itself does not seem appropriate." Professor Cheon Eun-mi of the Respiratory Medicine Department at Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital stated, "We are now at the threshold of herd immunity," adding, "At least 25-40% need to be infected, with cumulative confirmed cases approaching 20 million, for what is commonly referred to as herd immunity to develop."

Professor Lee Hyuk-min of the Department of Laboratory Medicine at Severance Hospital said, "Usually, immunity lasts long after three vaccine doses, but with COVID-19, the effectiveness wanes," and predicted, "Even if the current wave subsides and the situation stabilizes, during future COVID-19 seasons, high-risk groups such as the elderly and those with underlying conditions will remain vulnerable." Professor Baek Soon-young, emeritus professor at the Catholic University College of Medicine, also said, "Because Omicron's transmissibility is so strong, as long as there are people susceptible to infection, the outbreak will continue."

"Severe shortage of therapeutics"

Although the Omicron pandemic is expected to reach its peak between last week and this week, similar forecasts have been made regarding the possibility of many confirmed cases over the next 2 to 4 weeks. Professor Eom expressed concern, saying, "We predicted the highest number of cases this week as expected, but since the government has continued to ease quarantine measures, the numbers could increase." Emeritus Professor Baek said, "While Wednesday's cases could reach up to 500,000, they are unlikely to exceed 600,000," adding, "By this weekend, confirmed cases will reach 12 million, and cumulative cases will increase to 25% of the total population."

After the peak of the pandemic passes, there will be a greater challenge of a rapid increase in severe and critical patients and hundreds of deaths, so the active introduction and prescription of COVID-19 therapeutics must be expedited. Professor Cheon said, "On the ground, there is still a lack or absence of COVID-19 therapeutics, so prescriptions cannot be made," emphasizing, "Urgent smooth supply and distribution of oral therapeutics like Paxlovid and injectable Remdesivir are needed." Professor Jeong Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine also said, "How well we overcome the crisis from late March to early April depends on how many therapeutics are secured and prescribed, and how efficiently remaining hospital beds are managed."

There are also voices cautioning against government optimism. Professor Eom pointed out, "Currently, severe and critical patients were infected a week to ten days ago, so the results of last week's explosion in confirmed cases will only be known next week." Emeritus Professor Baek advised, "It would be good to prepare predictive models and quarantine measures by distinguishing how much immunity exists through antibody positivity rate tests recently mentioned by President-elect Ahn Cheol-soo, and how much is natural immunity versus vaccine immunity."

Regarding vaccination for children aged 5 to 11, most experts pointed out that the timing of vaccination was late. Instead, they agreed that high-risk children should receive at least one dose to reduce the possibility of severe illness. Professor Jeong emphasized, "Since many children will already be infected by the time vaccination starts, it is most important to quickly protect high-risk children first." Professor Cheon noted, "For children, the main problem is that most develop high fever when infected with COVID-19," and added, "The solution is to provide direct face-to-face medical care."

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum stated, "The next one to two weeks will be a turning point in overcoming the COVID-19 crisis," and expressed confidence, "If we endure this period steadily as prepared, we can bring forward the decline of the outbreak by even a day and minimize regrettable losses."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.