[Comprehensive] Biden's '5 Cards' on His First Trip to Europe After the Ukraine Crisis

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Joselgina] U.S. President Joe Biden is visiting Europe for the first time since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As the Ukraine crisis prolongs, this trip aims to pressure Russia through unified responses with allies such as NATO and the Group of Seven (G7), while also showcasing U.S. diplomatic leadership.

The key cards President Biden may play during this visit can be summarized into five main areas: additional sanctions targeting Russia, support measures to assist the European Union's (EU) energy sanctions decision, deployment of additional U.S. troops, refugee support plans, and warnings to China.

According to the White House on the 22nd (local time), President Biden will depart for Brussels, Belgium, on the afternoon of the 23rd to attend consecutive summits: NATO, EU, and G7 meetings the following day. On the 25th, he will visit Poland, which borders Ukraine, with a scheduled summit meeting with Polish President Andrzej Duda.

First, President Biden is expected to announce new sanctions against Russia during his speech at the EU summit. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan explained at a briefing that day, "We will impose additional sanctions," adding, "An important next step is not only adding new sanctions but also ensuring that existing sanctions cannot be evaded, nullified, or weakened."

Support measures to strengthen the EU's energy security and reduce dependence on Russia have also been prepared. Sullivan confirmed, "We plan to announce joint action." To this end, officials responsible for energy resources and energy security within the Biden administration are accompanying the trip. Bloomberg News reported that "the U.S. has been negotiating to increase energy exports to the EU." This is interpreted as a process to draw out the EU's previously lukewarm stance on energy sanctions against Russia. Unlike the U.S. and the U.K., which have banned imports of Russian oil, there remains significant opposition within the EU regarding energy sanctions.

Additionally, President Biden is expected to coordinate on the deployment of military forces in Eastern European NATO member states during the trip, Sullivan confirmed. Accordingly, there is a high possibility that the U.S. will strengthen its military presence in Eastern Europe, geographically close to Russia and Belarus, through additional troop deployments. Discussions with allies are also anticipated regarding requests from Ukraine for combat aircraft support.

When President Biden's European trip plans were initially announced, the main question was whether he would visit Ukraine. However, the White House early on ruled out such a visit. Instead, President Biden is expected to hold refugee-related events in Poland. A senior U.S. official stated, "He may visit refugee camps and meet Ukrainians who crossed the border, but details are still being coordinated."

During the summit with President Duda, refugee support plans will also be unveiled. Amy Gutmann, U.S. Ambassador to Germany, stated, "If Ukrainian refugees want to come to the U.S., we are willing to accept them."

This trip may also serve as an opportunity for the U.S. to lead warning messages to China at the NATO, EU, and G7 levels. Previously, President Biden spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping for about 110 minutes, strongly warning against military and economic support for Russia, but did not receive a clear response. Sullivan mentioned that the EU and China have a summit scheduled for the 1st of next month and said, "We want to discuss this issue with the EU before that meeting," adding, "We share the same position as Europe and will speak with one voice."

However, there are significant concerns that President Biden's European trip alone will be insufficient to stop Russian President Vladimir Putin's escalating war. As the Ukraine crisis drags on and Russia finds itself cornered, voices are rising that Russia may resort to cyberattacks and the use of biochemical weapons. The Washington Post (WP) predicted, "Russia will rely on nuclear deterrence and attempt to demonstrate power to send signals to the West." In response, President Biden is expected to focus on tightening sanctions to pressure Russia effectively while demonstrating unified responses among major countries.

Experts believe this trip will not mark a dramatic turning point in President Putin's war. However, the visit itself carries strong symbolism and pressure against Russia. WP reported it as "more symbolic than substantive." Ian Lesser, Vice President of the German Marshall Fund, said, "This is the biggest security crisis in Europe since World War II, and the appearance of the U.S. president is an opportunity and expectation for American leadership." This is also seen as an opportunity for President Biden, who has been cornered by last year's Afghanistan withdrawal decision and domestic inflation, to showcase his role as a "world leader" ahead of the midterm elections.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.