Roblox, February Performance Remains Weak... Short-Term Stock Rebound Unlikely

[Asia Economy Reporter Minji Lee] As Roblox's user metrics continue to underperform, opinions are emerging that the Q1 earnings outlook needs to be lowered.

On the 20th, Roblox's stock price stood at $49.62, down 49.78% since the beginning of the year. Although the stock price rebounded about 30% from $38.06 over the past week, it is still considered sluggish due to concerns about normalization since the start of the year.

According to the February metrics released by Roblox, the number of users was 55.1 million, a 1% increase compared to the previous month. Usage time was 3.8 billion hours, down 10% from January, and total revenue was between $203 million and $206 million, an 8% decrease. Total revenue per user also fell 8% to between $3.68 and $3.74, while net revenue increased 1% to between $204 million and $207 million.

Lee Young-jin, a researcher at Samsung Securities, said, “Most metrics showed negative growth compared to the previous month, but it should be considered that there were fewer days and weekends compared to January.” He added, “Compared to a year ago, there was growth, but the downward stabilization is disappointing and insufficient to act as short-term stock momentum.”

Although the next month's metrics need to be reviewed, considering the weak indicators in January and February, Q1 earnings are expected to fall short of previous forecasts. The market expected total revenue of $677 million, 54.1 million users, 1.23 billion hours of usage, and net revenue of $552 million. Jung Yong-je, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, explained, “Q1 payment amount is expected to be $660 million, about 4% below market expectations,” adding, “Due to continued payment weakness, short-term momentum will be sluggish.” To meet market expectations for Q1 earnings, March's total revenue must reach $251 million, users 52.4 million, and usage time 4.3 billion hours.

Monetization through game-based platformization is expected to require a mid- to long-term perspective. Researcher Lee Young-jin said, “Attention should be paid to continuous partnership agreements based on network effects and expansion of new businesses,” adding, “Since the overall macro environment is unfavorable, with risk assets being considered risky, a long-term approach is necessary.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.