If Greenhouse Gas Emissions Aren't Reduced, Spring Flowers Will Bloom in February 60 Years Later

Cherry Blossoms Currently April 4 → March 10 in 60 Years
If Greenhouse Gas Emissions Remain at Current Levels
Forsythia, Azalea, and Cherry Blossom Blooming Advanced by 23-27 Days

An analysis has shown that if greenhouse gases are maintained at current levels, the blooming period of spring flowers will advance by up to February in 60 years. Cherry blossoms, which typically bloom in early April in Seoul, will be observed blooming in early March 60 years from now, and azaleas, which bloom in late March, will bloom in late February.

On the 17th, the Korea Meteorological Administration announced the forecast analysis results for the blooming dates of spring flowers (forsythia, azalea, and cherry blossoms) according to climate change scenarios. Under a high-carbon scenario assuming greenhouse gas emissions remain similar to current levels, the blooming period of the three spring flowers from 2081 to 2100 is expected to advance by about 23 to 27 days.

As the temperature increase becomes larger, forsythia is expected to bloom about 23 days earlier, azalea about 27 days earlier, and cherry blossoms about 25 days earlier. Currently, cherry blossoms bloom around April 4, but 60 years from now, they may bloom on March 10; forsythia, which blooms on March 25, may bloom on March 2; and azalea, which blooms on March 27, may bloom on February 28.

Typically, azaleas bloom later than forsythia, but in the latter half of the 21st century, forsythia and azalea are expected to bloom simultaneously or azalea may bloom earlier.

There are also differences in how much the blooming period advances by region. In Daegu, blooming will advance by 30 days, starting from February 27, while in Seoul, Gangneung, and Busan, it will advance by about 27, 26, and 24 days respectively. Forsythia is expected to bloom 29 days earlier in Incheon, and azalea about 35 days earlier in Seoul.

Over the past 60 years, the blooming dates of spring flowers have advanced by 3 to 9 days, but in the next 60 years, they are expected to advance by 23 to 27 days, making the rate of change more than three times faster.

The blooming period of spring flowers has been advancing from the 1950s to the 2010s. Compared to the 1950s, forsythia bloomed 3 days earlier, azalea 9 days earlier, and cherry blossoms 7 days earlier. Based on the 2010s, cherry blossoms bloomed on April 6 in Seoul, which is 9 days earlier than in the 1950s. In Daegu, it advanced by 12 days, and in Incheon by 8 days.

The Korea Meteorological Administration explained, "The advancement of spring flower blooming dates is consistent with the earlier start of spring in Korea and the rising temperatures during spring seasonal markers such as Ipchun and Gyeongchip," adding, "Changes in the blooming period of spring flowers could potentially affect the entire ecosystem."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.