'1292 Russian Tanks Damaged' Sergei Zheblin Changes the Course of the War

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] "Among Ukrainians, the meme 'Sacred Javelin (St. Javelin)' is trending. It has been confirmed that even Russia's latest tanks are vulnerable to the Javelin."

Babel Felgenhauer, a Russian military expert at the American think tank Jamestown Foundation, described the current war situation in Ukraine this way.

Bloomberg reported on the 15th (local time) that anti-tank missiles such as Javelin and NLAW could change the course of the war in Ukraine. The report explained that tanks are being neutralized by Western anti-tank missiles, forcing Russia into a situation where it must prepare for urban warfare.

The project group Oryx, which is analyzing the casualties of Russian and Ukrainian forces in this war, estimated that Russia has lost about four times more tanks than Ukraine so far. Oryx estimated that the Russian military has lost 214 tanks and a total of 1,292 combat vehicles. On the other hand, Ukrainian losses are estimated at 65 tanks and a total of 343 vehicles. Some claims from the Ukrainian side suggest that the scale of Russian tank losses is even greater than Oryx's estimates.

The Ukrainian military has been supplied with an unprecedented number of anti-tank missiles in modern warfare.

For example, the UK sent 3,615 NLAW anti-tank missiles and launchers developed jointly with Sweden, and Germany sent 1,000 anti-tank weapons. Norway sent 2,000 anti-tank weapons, Sweden sent 5,000, and the United States has not officially confirmed how many Javelins it has sent. According to U.S. Department of Defense data, the U.S. Department of Defense spent $190.3 million in 2021 to purchase 10 Javelin launchers and 763 missiles.

Javelin and NLAW attack the most vulnerable part of tanks?the top. They are also called so-called 'fire and forget missiles.' After firing Javelin and NLAW, Ukrainian forces can immediately leave the site. This reduces the risk of counterattack by the Russian forces, as the firing location is not exposed, the report explained.

Ukraine also possesses Soviet-era weapons and has recently produced its own anti-tank weapons. Although the anti-tank weapons developed by Ukraine are less precise than Javelin or NLAW, the report said they are mostly effective against tanks.

A Ukrainian soldier is moving while carrying a Javelin.
Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

Felgenhauer diagnosed that the Russian forces suffering from anti-tank missiles could learn lessons from the strategy used by the Israeli military during the Yom Kippur War in the Middle East in 1973.

The Yom Kippur War refers to the Fourth Middle East War. Egypt and Syrian forces attacked Israel on Yom Kippur (Day of Atonement), an important Jewish holiday, hence the name Yom Kippur War. Although Israel ultimately won, Egypt pushed Israel into a crisis with an effective surprise attack in the early stages and regained the Sinai Peninsula lost during the Third Middle East War.

Felgenhauer explained that Egypt saw success with newly acquired state-of-the-art anti-tank missiles during the Yom Kippur War, and Israel responded by pulling back tanks and deploying infantry to neutralize the anti-tank missiles.

Perhaps for this reason, Russia recently announced recruiting mercenaries from the Middle East and other regions, showing a focus on securing new reserve forces. Observers suggest urban warfare is imminent.

The Institute for the Study of War in Washington predicted that mercenaries and reinforcements hired by Russia would begin gathering near Kyiv this week. Kyiv raised its alert level on the 15th, stating that anyone found without a special pass would be considered affiliated with Russian forces.

On the other hand, Lawrence Freedman, a professor of war studies at King's College London, wrote in a recent blog, "There is no noticeable military movement in major Ukrainian cities," and analyzed, "Ukrainians have prepared for meticulous urban warfare, and Russian forces are reluctant to engage in urban combat, which may be a concern for the Russian military command." He added, "If so, the possibility of a negotiated settlement increases."

Felgenhauer said, "When attacking a city, the important thing is not just to bombard it but to send infantry into the city while the defenders are in shock. Without doing so, nothing can be gained." He added, "If you ask whether the Russian military has enough infantry to enter the city, I don't think so."

Felgenhauer analyzed that almost all of the current Russian generals experienced similar situations during the Syrian civil war. He explained that after Russian warplanes bombed major cities like Aleppo and Homs, the Syrian government forces failed to properly attack the rebels, leading to a two-year inconclusive siege. Felgenhauer said that at that time, Russia spent time training Syrian special forces capable of urban warfare and responded by using vacuum bombs. There are suspicions that Russian forces have used vacuum bombs in various parts of Ukraine.

Felgenhauer said he is curious whether the Russian military will use the strategy employed in Syria before the spring when the frozen ground thaws, which would be advantageous for Russian forces. While spring could favor Russian tank units, it could also give Ukrainian forces time to gather and strengthen their power. He also explained that the defense of Mariupol, which has been under siege for two weeks, is important. If Mariupol is captured, its forces will be deployed to attack Kyiv or Odesa, he added.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.