"Over 320,000 New Confirmed Cases on the 16th"... Decline Expected Around the 23rd (Update)

Up to 2,150 Severe COVID-19 Patients Per Day from Late This Month to Early Next Month
Nationwide COVID-19 Risk Level 'Very High'

On the 13th, when 351,90 new COVID-19 cases were reported, citizens visiting the temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza, where daily cases have been in the 300,000 range, are waiting to get tested. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] The quarantine authorities forecast that over 320,000 new COVID-19 cases will be reported on the 16th, with an average of 310,000 to 370,000 daily cases expected until the 22nd.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 14th, among seven domestic research teams conducting COVID-19 prediction studies, five teams predicted that new cases would exceed 320,000 around the middle of this week, specifically on the 16th.

Additionally, five out of six research teams predicted that the outbreak would begin to decline around the 23rd. The peak of the outbreak was broadly forecasted to occur by the 22nd, with the scale of the outbreak varying from an average of 310,000 to 370,000 daily cases.

Accordingly, the number of critically ill patients hospitalized is expected to increase to over 1,800 around the 23rd, with daily cases ranging from 1,650 to 2,120 predicted between late March and early April.

The Central Disease Control Headquarters also conducted a weekly risk assessment for the period of March 6?12 (the second week of March), concluding that weekly hospitalizations, critical cases, and deaths reached record highs and are expected to continue rising for the time being. The risk level was assessed as 'very high' nationwide, in the metropolitan area, and in non-metropolitan areas.

This follows the previous week's (February 27?March 5) diagnosis of COVID-19 risk as 'very high' at the national level, with the same evaluation maintained last week.

In South Korea, new cases have continued at 100,000 to 200,000 daily for three consecutive weeks, with the proportion of cases among those aged 60 and older and the ICU bed occupancy rate rising. The number and proportion of cases among those aged 18 and under, who have a high rate of unvaccinated individuals, are also on the rise.

As cases surge, the number of critically ill patients has increased, with the nationwide ICU bed occupancy rate rising to 61.9% last week, up 8.4 percentage points from 53.5% the previous week. The ICU bed occupancy rate in the metropolitan area increased from 49.6% to 57.6%, while in non-metropolitan areas it rose from 62.6% to 71.9%.

With the increase in cases among those aged 60 and older, the number of critically ill patients and deaths is expected to continue rising. Among the average daily cases in the second week of March, the proportion of cases aged 60 and older (322,980 cases) was 16.2%, and the proportion of cases aged 18 and under (508,241 cases) was 25.5%. Weekly new critically ill patients increased from 819 in the first week of March to 881 in the second week, and weekly deaths surged from 901 to 1,348.

Meanwhile, the detection rate of the Omicron variant in domestic COVID-19 cases was 99.98% as of midnight on the 12th. Among imported cases, 99.7% were also Omicron variants. The detection rate of the Omicron sub-lineage 'BA.2,' known as 'Stealth Omicron,' was 26.3% in domestic cases and 45.7% among imported cases.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.