Will Macron Secure Re-election?... Rising Approval Ratings Following the Ukraine Crisis

Leading in major polls with support in the 30% range... widening double-digit gap over 2nd place candidate Le Pen

French President Emmanuel Macron
Photo by AP Yonhap News

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] As French President Emmanuel Macron's approval rating rises, analysis suggests that his chances of re-election in next month's presidential election have increased. On the 3rd, one day before the deadline for presidential candidate registration, President Macron declared his bid for re-election by releasing a "Letter to the French People" on the websites of regional French newspapers including Le Parisien. It has been confirmed that President Macron's approval rating has been rising since Russia's recent invasion of Ukraine.

In a recent poll conducted by French polling agency Elabe at the request of BFM TV and weekly magazine L'Express, President Macron was found to have the highest approval rating of 33.5% in the first round of the presidential election scheduled for the 10th of next month. This marks an increase of 8.5 percentage points compared to the poll conducted a week earlier.

The approval rating of Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally (RN), rose by only 2 percentage points to 15%, widening the gap with President Macron. Jean-Luc M?lenchon, candidate of the far-left "France Insoumise," entered third place for the first time with a 13% approval rating.

Eric Zemmour, a former journalist with far-right tendencies, saw his approval rating drop by 3 percentage points to 11%, while Val?rie P?cresse, the first female presidential candidate from the right-wing Republicans and governor of ?le-de-France, slipped to fifth place with a 10.5% approval rating.

Another poll conducted by Harris Interactive at the request of the French economic magazine Challenges and released on the 9th also showed President Macron's approval rating rising by 3.5 percentage points to 30.5% compared to the previous week. Le Pen ranked second with 18.5%, while M?lenchon and Zemmour tied for third place with 12.5% each.

Pascal Perrineau, a professor at Sciences Po in Paris, said, "President Macron is somewhat young but has done well so far, so the 'rally round the flag effect' is occurring." The rally round the flag effect refers to the phenomenon where public support consolidates around the ruling party during times of crisis and turmoil. It is analyzed that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is currently helping President Macron's path to re-election. President Macron has shown active mediation efforts by holding several phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin. His approval rating for governance was surveyed at 51%.

Marine Le Pen, National Front Candidate [Photo by AFP Yonhap News]

J?r?my Peltier, head of research at the Jean Jaur?s Foundation think tank in Paris, said, "President Macron was clearly the frontrunner even before the Ukraine crisis, and now he is receiving even stronger support."

Candidate P?cresse expressed dissatisfaction on BFM TV, saying, "The Ukraine crisis is being used to destroy the elections and democratic debate that France currently needs."

Under the current circumstances, it is highly likely that a runoff election between President Macron and candidate Le Pen will be repeated, as in the presidential election five years ago. If President Macron does not secure a majority in the first round, he will have to face the second-place candidate in a runoff on the 24th of next month.

Polls indicate that in a runoff, President Macron would again defeat candidate Le Pen with 56% of the vote to her 44%. In the 2017 presidential runoff, Macron won with 66.1% of the vote, defeating Le Pen.

In France, since former President Jacques Chirac's re-election in the 2002 presidential election, no president has been re-elected.

However, the soaring energy costs following the Ukraine crisis are expected to be a negative factor for President Macron. Professor Perrineau said, "The rally round the flag effect does not mean enthusiastic support for President Macron," adding, "There is also anti-Macron sentiment."

President Macron has pledged labor law relaxation, tax cuts, a comprehensive reform of the heavily indebted state-owned railway company SNCF, and raising the retirement age from 62 to 65. He also announced plans to abolish the annual broadcasting tax of 138 euros imposed on households owning a TV. The abolition of the broadcasting tax is a pledge adopted by most right-wing candidates.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.