How Will the Seoul Mayor and 25 District Mayors Elections Be Conducted for the First Time Since the Presidential Election?

In the presidential election, candidate Yoon Seok-yeol won in 14 Seoul districts · Interest in how much the People Power Party will win in the first local election after the presidential inauguration... Currently, 23 district mayors are held by the Democratic Party, with attention on how well their organizational strength performs

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Jong-il] The 20th presidential election concluded with the victory of Yoon Seok-yeol, the candidate from the People Power Party.

Yoon won by a narrow margin of approximately 247,000 votes after a fierce contest.

This has drawn attention to the upcoming Seoul mayoral and 25 district mayoral elections, which are just over 80 days away. Notably, unlike the last year's April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election where Mayor Oh Se-hoon won all 25 autonomous districts, in this presidential election, the People Power Party won in 14 districts while the Democratic Party won in 11 districts.

Accordingly, the nationwide 8th local elections will be held again just 20 days after President Yoon Seok-yeol's inauguration on May 10, already attracting significant interest.

It is true that district mayors and city councilors affiliated with the Democratic Party have not yet recovered from the shock of this presidential election result.

Will this presidential election serve as a barometer for the Seoul mayoral and district mayoral elections just over 80 days away?

◆ People Power Party: Possible victory of 14 to 20 seats for Seoul district mayors along with the Seoul mayor?

In this presidential election, Yoon Seok-yeol won in the ‘Gangnam 4 districts’?Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, Gangdong?as well as the Han River belt districts of Mapo, Yongsan, Seongdong, Gwangjin (‘Mayongseonggwang’), and middle-class residential areas such as Jongno, Jung, Yangcheon, Yeongdeungpo, and Dongjak districts.

Especially in the June 1 local elections, which will be the first elections held immediately after the new government takes office, there is a prevailing forecast that more district mayors from the People Power Party, who swept 14 autonomous districts in this presidential election, will be elected.

A Seoul city official said, “Since this is the first local election after the new government’s launch, it is expected that the People Power Party will perform well,” adding, “It is not impossible that the previous result of 21 (Democratic) to 4 (Saenuri Party in Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, Jungnang) during the 6th local government term could be reversed.”

In particular, since the new government was launched with a minority ruling party, it is predicted that there will be a strong support atmosphere for ruling party candidates to empower President Yoon Seok-yeol.

Moreover, the People Power Party has an advantage because Mayor Oh Se-hoon holds the incumbent premium, while the Democratic Party has yet to reveal its Seoul mayoral candidate pool.

Also, the 25 district mayor candidates from the People Power Party running alongside Mayor Oh are expected to benefit from his influence.

Historically, Seoul mayoral, district mayor, and city council elections have tended to follow so-called ‘straight-ticket voting’ (voting all for candidate number 1 or all for candidate number 2).

In this presidential election, real estate issues also determined the direction of votes. The Moon Jae-in administration’s policies such as increasing comprehensive real estate holding tax and the three real estate laws caused middle-class residents in Seoul to develop resentment toward the current government.

Amid this, the April 7 Seoul mayoral by-election last year, compounded by the LH employees’ real estate speculation scandal, strongly reflected a desire to judge the current administration, leading Mayor Oh Se-hoon to sweep all 25 autonomous districts in Seoul.

◆ Democratic Party: Holding ground from the 5th to 7th local government terms into the 8th?

The Democratic Party is deeply concerned, having controlled 24 out of 25 district mayor positions in Seoul.

A Democratic Party district mayor said, “Although shocked by this result, we believe we have done our best and performed relatively well,” adding, “We will do our utmost in the local elections.”

The Democratic Party appears to be preparing to mobilize all efforts based on the organization it has built by dominating Seoul’s autonomous districts for 12 years through three victories since the 5th local government term in 2010.

Although opinion polls predicted a 7% lead for Yoon Seok-yeol over Lee Jae-myung in Seoul during this presidential election, the actual margin was only 310,766 votes (4.8%), which is interpreted as a result of a full-scale final push leveraging organizational strength.

For this reason, the Democratic Party is expected to aim to secure between 5 and 10 districts at worst.

This forecast is based on the assumption that if strong organizational mobilization occurs in Democratic Party strongholds such as Gangbuk districts like Nowon, Dobong, Gangbuk, Seongbuk, Eunpyeong, and southwestern districts like Geumcheon, Guro, and Gwanak, the Democratic Party will strive to hold as many seats as possible.

Additionally, the premium of 23 incumbent district mayors affiliated with the Democratic Party is expected to play a significant role.

Especially since the Democratic Party has established a solid organizational base by winning three consecutive Seoul district mayor elections from the 5th local government term in 2010.

On the other hand, there is also opposing public opinion.

The 5th local government term elections held during the Lee Myung-bak administration in 2010 saw the opposition Democratic Party sweep Seoul’s autonomous districts amid heightened inter-Korean tensions and war threats. The 6th local government term elections in 2014 under the Park Geun-hye administration were also easily won by the Democratic Party due to the Sewol ferry disaster.

Following that, the 7th local government term elections in 2018 under the Moon Jae-in administration saw the Democratic Party sweep 24 out of 25 districts in Seoul, except Seocho, influenced by the Trump-Kim Jong-un Singapore summit just before the election.

This consecutive three-time victory in local elections by the Democratic Party could ironically work against them.

It is argued that the Democratic Party’s sweeping victories in Seoul mayoral and district mayor elections have caused voter fatigue.

Moreover, the fact that the Democratic Party’s Seoul mayoral candidate has not yet emerged is not a favorable situation. A Seoul city autonomous district official said, “Since the Democratic Party won three consecutive terms from the 5th to 7th local governments, and this local election is held immediately after the presidential election, the outlook is not bright.”

As the presidential election results showed a tight race between both sides, fierce competition is also expected in the upcoming local elections.

Interest is gradually growing in the results of the 8th local government term elections, the first to be held after the launch of the Yoon Seok-yeol administration.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.