[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] North Korea's Additional Provocation Forecast... Timing Is

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] On the 11th, North Korean media reported that Chairman Kim Jong-un visited the West Sea Satellite Launching Station, capable of launching long-range rockets that can be converted into ICBMs, and ordered the renovation of the satellite rocket launch facilities. It is expected that the Hwasong-17 ICBM, known as the "Monster ICBM" due to its larger diameter and length compared to existing ICBMs, will be launched again soon.

In April, with the upcoming Kim Il-sung's birthday (the 15th), known as the Day of the Sun, and the first half of the South Korea-US joint military exercises scheduled, North Korea may carry out military provocations as a form of "new government settling in" or "testing the waters." In particular, President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol has defined the Moon Jae-in administration's Korea peace process policy as a failure and is advocating a tougher stance on North Korea, which could increase military tensions around his inauguration in May.

North Korea launched the anti-ship cruise missile "Geumseong-1" one day before President Roh Moo-hyun's inauguration (February 24, 2003). Thirteen days before President Park Geun-hye's inauguration (February 12, 2013), North Korea conducted its third nuclear test. At that time, President Lee Myung-bak and President-elect Park Geun-hye held an emergency meeting. During the 2017 presidential election when Moon Jae-in was elected, missile provocations continued throughout May after the new government took office. President-elect Yoon could be inaugurated in early May amid the crisis of inter-Korean confrontation.

The Ministry of National Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff are reportedly not yet receiving reports or requests for reports regarding North Korea's ICBM from President-elect Yoon. However, Professor Kim Sung-han of Korea University, who contributed to the foreign and security policy formulation during Yoon Seok-yeol's campaign, stated, "We are taking the situation seriously and support the U.S. sanctions measures against North Korea."

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