North's Pressure to 'Break the Moratorium'... A Warning to the New Government?

[Asia Economy reporters Lee Ji-eun and Na Ju-seok] After South Korea and the United States defined North Korea's missile provocations as the end of the moratorium, Kim Jong-un, the General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea, visited the West Sea Satellite Launching Station, capable of launching ICBMs. As tensions on the Korean Peninsula escalate with increased risks of additional provocations immediately after the presidential election, the newly inaugurated Yoon Suk-yeol administration's diplomatic and security response is already being put to the test. The United States has indicated additional sanctions, viewing North Korea as having crossed the red line.

On the 10th (local time), a senior U.S. official confirmed North Korea's ICBM test launch, stating, "While keeping the door open for diplomacy, the U.S. will take all necessary measures to ensure the security of the homeland and its allies," signaling plans for further sanctions. The Treasury Department is expected to announce additional sanctions on individuals and entities related to North Korea's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and third-country companies on the 11th. In January, the Treasury had already added six North Korean nationals, including five officials from the National Defense Science Institute, one Russian individual, and one Russian company to the sanctions list in response to North Korea's successive ballistic missile launches.

This is not the first time North Korea has carried out significant provocations around a presidential election. In November 1987, ahead of the 13th presidential election, Korean Air (KAL) Flight 858 was bombed by North Korean agents Kim Seung-il and Kim Hyun-hee, resulting in 115 casualties. After the 14th presidential election, in March 1993, North Korea withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), triggering the 'first North Korean nuclear crisis.' In June 1997, before the 15th presidential election, North Korean patrol boats crossed the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea and fired artillery at South Korean vessels. In December 2002, just before the 16th presidential election, North Korea violated the Geneva Agreed Framework and lifted its nuclear freeze.

The Yoon Suk-yeol presidential transition team is closely monitoring the situation. Classified as a 'hardline pro-North Korea faction' due to views such as 'preemptive strike theory,' they are exercising caution in their response level. In a phone interview with Asia Economy, Cho Tae-yong, a foreign affairs expert from the People Power Party, said, "Provocations were severe during the Moon Jae-in administration as well," adding, "It's not that provocations occur simply because the government is conservative."

Experts interpret North Korea's message of 'strengthening defense capabilities' as indifferent to whether the new government is conservative or progressive. Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, "It is a message beyond a warning," analyzing, "Regardless of which government comes in, the commitment to prioritize the completion of strategic weapons remains unchanged." Kim Jong-un's visit to the National Aerospace Development Administration before the election results were finalized, where he pledged to deploy a large number of reconnaissance satellites, supports this interpretation.

There is also analysis that the pressure is more directed at the United States than the new government. Professor Yang Moo-jin of the University of North Korean Studies said, "It should be seen more as pressure on the U.S. rather than the new government," explaining, "While pressuring the U.S., there is an implicit intention to ask for restraint so as not to cross the 'red line.'"

North Korea's next move is likely to be an 'engine ejection test.' Hong said, "The West Sea launch site also serves as a place for engine ejection tests before launches," analyzing, "The instruction to expand the capabilities of the 'ground-based engine ejection test site (rocket engine test site)' mentioned in the article is for that reason."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.