[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] What Are North Korea's Provocation Cards After the Presidential Election?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] There are growing expectations that North Korea will launch full-scale provocations after the presidential election. The joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises have been postponed to April, coinciding with the Day of the Sun (April 15), the birthday of Chairman Kim Il-sung, which could provide North Korea with a pretext for provocations.

This year marks the 110th anniversary of the Day of the Sun. North Korea, which attaches special significance to milestone years such as 5-year and 10-year anniversaries, has declared that this year’s Day of the Sun and the Day of the Bright Star will be commemorated as a “great festival of victory shining in the history of the homeland.”

If North Korea carries out provocations, the possibility of additional nuclear tests or intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches cannot be ruled out.

▲ Signs of additional nuclear tests = Recently, there have been indications that North Korea has constructed new buildings at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in Kilju County, North Hamgyong Province, which was demolished in May 2018. Jeffrey Lewis, East Asia director at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the U.S., revealed this in an article on the arms control expert website (armscontrolwonk.com) on the 7th (local time).

Lewis analyzed satellite images of Punggye-ri taken recently by U.S. space technology company Maxar Technologies and diagnosed that new buildings have been erected and existing structures repaired at Punggye-ri. He said, “This indicates that North Korea has made some decisions regarding the status of the test site,” and pointed to North Korea’s suggestion in January of the possibility of resuming nuclear tests and ICBM launches, predicting that the nuclear test site may be restored to a state ready for test resumption.

He said it would take at least several months to prepare the Punggye-ri nuclear test site for test resumption, depending on the extent of damage to the tunnels demolished in 2018. However, he also considered the possibility that North Korea might resume nuclear tests at a completely different location.

Lewis added, “If North Korea resumes nuclear testing, it could be to boost confidence in a large hydrogen bomb with a yield of over 100kt (kilotons; 1kt equals the explosive power of 1,000 tons of TNT) or to verify new tactical nuclear weapons for short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.”

▲ Also considering the ICBM launch card = Observers note that North Korea has taken a step closer to ICBM provocations by claiming to have conducted tests for reconnaissance satellite development on the 5th, following a similar test on the 27th of last month. According to North Korea’s claim, placing a reconnaissance satellite into low Earth orbit requires a long-range rocket, which is not much different from ICBM technology.

The long-range rocket, composed of a three-stage separation system, serves as a satellite launch vehicle when a satellite payload is mounted on the warhead section, and can be converted into an ICBM when equipped with a nuclear warhead or similar payload.

North Korea launched missiles with similar specifications from the same location (Pyongyang Sunan) at six-day intervals, changing only the justification from reconnaissance camera tests to satellite data transmission and reception systems. This means they tested a system to transmit reconnaissance images taken by the reconnaissance camera to the ground and to control the satellite from the ground. This raises the possibility of additional related tests in the future.

Given the consecutive tests, it appears that North Korea is also producing long-range rockets capable of launching reconnaissance satellites into space. Experts are concerned that although North Korea publicly claims to be developing reconnaissance satellites, it is actually steadily progressing toward test launches of ICBMs.

The Earth images released the day after the medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) launch on the 27th of last month were of a resolution too low to be considered reconnaissance satellite images.

However, it is expected that North Korea will have a public decision-making process for an ICBM launch. It is anticipated that there will be a scene revealing General Secretary Kim’s “decision.” North Korea is also aware that withdrawing the “moratorium” and crossing the red line would be the highest-level provocation that closes all possibilities for dialogue.

The key factor ultimately lies in the support of China and Russia. North Korea likely believes that increasing pressure on the U.S. with the ICBM launch card is effective as long as it does not lead to additional sanctions. Considering that the adoption of additional sanctions resolutions requires unanimous consent from all 15 members of the United Nations Security Council, North Korea is expected to proceed with further provocations once it secures “positive signals” from China and Russia, the permanent members of the Security Council.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.