Will Lee Jae-myung Achieve 30% Vote Share in TK and Yoon Seok-yeol 30% in Honam?

Interest in Achieving Vote Targets in Thirteen Regions
Tie at 40% for Lee and Yoon in NBS's Final Poll Before Survey Publication Ban Period

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Geum Boryeong] With the 20th presidential election just one day away, attention is focused on the feasibility of the vote share targets set by the Democratic Party of Korea and the People Power Party in their respective weak regions. The Democratic Party expects presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung to secure 30% of the vote in Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK), while the People Power Party has set a goal of 30% vote share for candidate Yoon Seok-youl in Honam.

According to a survey conducted by four polling agencies?Embrain Public, K-Stat Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research (NBS)?from the 28th of last month to the 2nd of this month, polling 2,013 voters (with a margin of error of ±2.2 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), the support rates in TK were 23% for candidate Lee and 60% for candidate Yoon.

The Democratic Party values the fact that candidate Lee’s hometown is Andong, Gyeongbuk, as well as his frequent visits to the region and dedicated efforts. Considering that President Moon Jae-in secured a vote share in the low 20% range in TK during the 19th presidential election, they believe that with the added "hometown synergy effect," candidate Lee can comfortably aim to surpass 30%.

Democratic Party leader Song Young-gil emphasized on MBC radio the day before, "We are targeting over 40% in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK)," adding, "Since candidate Lee is from Andong, Gyeongbuk, I am aiming for 30% in the TK Gyeongbuk region, and I believe we will exceed 40% in PK."

The People Power Party has also set a 30% vote share goal for candidate Yoon in Honam, a region considered weak for the conservative camp. Party leader Lee Jun-seok has consistently visited Honam, emphasizing the 'westward advancement policy,' and candidate Yoon has frequently stopped by Honam to appeal for support. The absorption of Honam votes through the opposition unity with Ahn Cheol-soo, leader of the People’s Party, is also anticipated.

Leader Lee expressed confidence on Channel A News the day before, stating, "Based on various indicators, I believe 30% is achievable," and added, "If even one of the three local governments?Gwangju, Jeonnam, or Jeonbuk?exceeds 30%, it will be a major upheaval." However, in surveys like NBS, support rates in Gwangju and Jeolla showed a large gap, with candidate Lee at 72% and candidate Yoon at 10%.

Experts have evaluated the figures put forth by both parties as 'unrealistic' given the current landscape. Um Kyung-young, director of the Era Spirit Research Institute, said, "It seems like they set high targets for show," analyzing, "The Democratic Party is likely to show vote shares in the 20% range, considering President Moon Jae-in’s 21% in TK during the 19th election, while the People Power Party is expected to achieve mid-teens percentage points, slightly higher than the 10% range secured by former President Park Geun-hye in the 18th election."

Leading candidates Lee and Yoon engaged in a fierce competition from January for two months, trading leads within the margin of error. In the first week of January, candidate Lee showed higher support than candidate Yoon, but by the third week of the same month, candidate Yoon rapidly caught up.

After about a month of a neck-and-neck race within the margin of error, candidate Yoon pulled ahead in the third week of February. According to an NBS survey conducted from February 14 to 16 polling 1,012 men and women nationwide aged 18 and over (with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level), candidate Yoon had 40% support, while candidate Lee had 31%. In the last NBS survey conducted just before the election silence period on March 3, both candidates were tied at 40% each.

For more details, please refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.