"Until Social Distancing Eases" ... 3 Key Variables to Keep in Mind

Experts Warn Against Hasty Government Review
① Speed of New Cases Spread ... Epidemic Peak Not Reached
② Infant and Elementary Student Family Infections ... Household Transmission Inevitable
③ Severe Cases and Deaths Increase ... Medical Staff Caring for Patients Severely Shortage

On the 1st, when 138,993 new COVID-19 cases were reported, citizens visiting the temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza were waiting to get tested. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

As the number of new COVID-19 cases has hovered around 200,000 for two consecutive days, the government is considering easing the current social distancing measures, which are in effect until the 13th. Taking into account the low fatality rate of the Omicron variant and the economic damage to small business owners, the plan is to lift restrictions such as the '6-person limit on private gatherings' and the '10 PM closing time for restaurants and cafes.' However, warnings continue that this would be a premature relaxation of quarantine measures, given that the Omicron wave has not yet peaked and that family infections, as well as severe cases and deaths, are rapidly increasing.

The Central Disease Control Headquarters announced that as of midnight on the 3rd, there were 198,803 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the total cumulative number of confirmed cases to 3,691,488. Following the previous day's 219,240 new cases, the number of new infections has remained around 200,000 for two consecutive days. The positivity rate of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests at screening clinics rose sharply to 51.3%, compared to 30.5% the day before and 40.5% two days prior.

Initially, health authorities had predicted that the daily number of COVID-19 cases in the country would reach around 230,000 by the presidential election day on the 9th, but this figure has been brought forward by about a week, leading to expectations that the scale of the spread will be larger than anticipated.

Professor Jeong Jae-hoon’s team at Gachon University College of Medicine forecasts that the Omicron wave will peak around the 13th to 14th, with new cases reaching a maximum of 260,000 to 270,000, and the number of critically ill patients approaching 2,500 about 2 to 3 weeks later. Other studies predict that the number of new cases could exceed 350,000 by next weekend, making it difficult to determine the speed of the spread.

The surge in family infections centered on children and adolescents due to school reopening is also a concern. Considering that one in four new cases is among children and adolescents, the current number of about 50,000 cases in this group is expected to rise to as many as 100,000 in the future.

Currently, even if a cohabiting family member tests positive, other family members do not need to quarantine regardless of vaccination status. However, for schools, considering the need for quarantine measures, unvaccinated students with a cohabiting family member who tests positive are recommended to self-isolate until the 14th. Since actual isolation between children and adolescents and their guardians is difficult, mutual infection is largely inevitable. Most importantly, elementary school students under the age of 12 have not yet been vaccinated.

The increase in the number of critically ill patients and deaths is also a key issue. The number of critically ill patients currently hospitalized rose to 766, and the number of deaths reached a record high of 128. The medical community views the current situation as more serious than in December last year, when the number of critically ill patients exceeded 1,000, despite premature easing of social distancing. Although health authorities emphasize that sufficient hospital beds have been secured, there is a significant shortage of medical staff to care for patients. Professor Seo Ji-young of the Department of Critical Care Medicine at Samsung Seoul Hospital pointed out, "Compared to the situation during last year's phased return to normal life (With COVID), while the number of beds has increased, the number of medical personnel remains the same, so there is not much difference."

The procurement and administration of oral antiviral treatments (Paxlovid), which can prevent the progression to severe illness in home-treated patients, have not been smooth, potentially leading to more critically ill patients. Professor Cheon Eun-mi of the Department of Respiratory Medicine at Ewha Mokdong Hospital said, "It is necessary for clinic-level medical institutions, which are familiar with their patients, to focus on home care and medication prescriptions to actively manage patients."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.