300,000 Possible on Election Day... "Severe Cases Also Surge Over 1,200"

Severe Bed Occupancy Rate Exceeds 50%... Critical Patients Surge Mid-Month
Test Positivity Rate Reaches 40.5%... PCR Testing Capacity Already at Limit

On the 1st, when 138,993 new COVID-19 cases were reported, citizens who visited the temporary screening clinic set up at Seoul Station Plaza were waiting to get tested. Photo by Jinhyung Kang aymsdream@

As the Omicron surge pushes the number of new COVID-19 cases close to 220,000 on the 2nd, the number of critically ill patients is also rapidly increasing. The occupancy rate of critical care beds has exceeded 50%, and the testing capacity of health authorities has already reached its limit. With the COVID-19 outbreak approaching its peak and elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide simultaneously reopening, there is an urgent need to manage infections among children and adolescents. If this trend continues, there are projections that daily confirmed cases could surpass 300,000 around the presidential election next week.

Bed and Testing Capacity Reaching Their Limits

Along with the surge in confirmed cases, the number of critically ill patients and deaths has also significantly increased. Until the 13th of last month, the number of critically ill patients remained in the 200s, but it rose to the 300s on the 14th, 400s on the 19th, 500s on the 23rd, 600s on the 25th, and 700s on the 28th, reaching 762 on this day. Compared to 512 patients a week ago on the 23rd, this is a 1.5-fold increase; compared to two weeks ago (February 16), it is 2.4 times higher; and compared to three weeks ago (February 9), it is 2.7 times higher.

Typically, the number of critically ill patients increases with a 1-2 week lag after the rise in confirmed cases, so a significant increase in severe cases is expected around mid-month. Projections estimate that the number of critically ill patients could exceed 1,200 on the 9th and 2,750 on the 16th. As of this day, out of 2,744 nationwide COVID-19 critical care beds, 1,376 are in use, resulting in a bed occupancy rate of 50.1%, which has already surpassed 50%.

The government's polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing capacity has already reached its limit. To respond to the surge in testing demand due to the spread of the Omicron variant, the government shifted its diagnostic testing system on the 3rd of last month to allow PCR tests only for those who tested positive on rapid antigen tests. However, the number of PCR tests conducted at screening clinics nationwide surged from about 360,000 on the 9th of last month to 430,000 on the 16th, 550,000 on the 23rd, and over 710,000 on the 1st of this month. Including all medical institutions and testing centers nationwide, the total number of PCR tests exceeded 1.05 million on the 1st.

Son Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters, explained in a radio interview that morning, "Yesterday (the 1st), a total of 1.05 million tests were conducted domestically, with 720,000 PCR tests at screening clinics. Due to the increased testing volume, the time required to interpret the tests has somewhat delayed, and consequently, the administrative process of notifying confirmed cases is also delayed."

The simultaneous reopening of kindergartens, elementary, middle, and high schools nationwide adds to concerns. The suspension of the vaccine pass requirement at restaurants, cafes, and entertainment facilities nationwide from the 1st is also expected to influence the increase in confirmed cases. Professor Jung Jae-hoon of Gachon University College of Medicine stated, "Vaccination for those under 12 is difficult to enforce or mandate. It is estimated that by May, more than 50% of children aged 5 to 11 will be infected. Approximately 20 to 80 additional critically ill patients are expected to occur."

Possibility of 300,000 Cases Next Week

The number of new confirmed cases on this day increased 1.3 times in one week from 171,451 on the 23rd of last month. Compared to 90,439 cases two weeks ago on the 16th of last month, it is 2.4 times higher, and compared to 49,529 cases three weeks ago on the 9th, it is 4.4 times higher. Since Omicron became the dominant variant in Korea, daily confirmed cases first reached the 10,000 range on January 26, surpassed 100,000 on the 18th of last month, and on this day, exceeded 200,000 by a large margin. It took 23 days to go from 10,000 to 100,000 cases, but only 12 days to go from 100,000 to 200,000 cases.

Initially, health authorities expected the daily number of COVID-19 cases in Korea to reach around 230,000 by the presidential election on the 9th. However, this figure was approached nearly a week earlier, raising concerns that the scale of the COVID-19 spread in Korea will be larger than anticipated. Predictions about the peak of the Omicron surge vary. Some research teams forecast the peak will form around the 15th with about 265,000 new cases, while others predict the peak will occur around the 12th with approximately 354,000 cases.

The government conservatively predicted the peak to occur in early to mid-month with daily confirmed cases ranging from 180,000 to 350,000. Son Young-rae said, "Yesterday, over 1 million tests were conducted, and many confirmed cases continue to be reported, but the rate of increase has somewhat slowed compared to last week. If this trend continues today and tomorrow, experts believe the peak will form within 1 to 2 weeks as predicted."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.