Experts from both camps engage in a proxy battle over 'Preemptive Strike Theory' and 'Additional THAAD'...

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] Diplomatic and security experts affiliated with both camps engaged in a proxy battle over the 'preemptive strike theory' and the 'additional deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense)' advocated by Yoon Seok-yeol, the People Power Party candidate. The Lee Jae-myung camp pointed out that "the preemptive strike theory could trigger a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula," while Yoon's camp countered, saying, "Preemptive strikes are legal and are included in our military response."

Kim Jeong-seop, Deputy Director of the Sejong Institute from Lee Jae-myung's camp, attended the '3rd Sejong Defense Forum' held at the Somerset Hotel in Seoul on the 23rd and stated, "If we carry out a preemptive strike while North Korea has not decided to use nuclear weapons, it could paradoxically lead to us being the first to trigger a nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula."

Deputy Director Kim said that Yoon's advocated 'preemptive strike theory' is inappropriate due to ▲ the near impossibility of clearly identifying signs of North Korea's nuclear attack in reality ▲ inevitable nuclear retaliation by North Korea ▲ a chain reaction of mutual fear, and added, "While it is necessary to have the capability to swiftly and precisely strike the opponent's key targets in an emergency, caution should be exercised in publicly declaring a preemptive strike doctrine."

In response, Shin Beom-cheol, Director of the Foreign and Security Center at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade from Yoon's camp, said, "The preemptive strike theory should not have been an issue in the first place," adding, "It came up during Yoon's response to a foreign journalist's question about the 'Kill Chain'."

A foreign journalist asked about "countermeasures against North Korea's hypersonic missiles," and Yoon responded that "if there are signs that North Korea is launching nuclear missiles, a preemptive strike would be carried out." Director Shin pointed out, "They framed the answer to the question as an overreaction like a preemptive attack or an inappropriate remark by the candidate and launched an offensive."

He also rebutted that the concept of 'preemptive strike' was included in the past 3-axis system's 'Kill Chain' and, although the term was changed to 'strategic strike system' under the Moon Jae-in administration, it remains part of the military's response.

Regarding the statement on 'additional deployment of THAAD for the protection of the Seoul metropolitan area,' both sides engaged in a fierce verbal battle. Deputy Director Kim said, "THAAD is not a weapon system suitable for defending the Seoul metropolitan area," pointing out, "THAAD cannot respond to short-range missiles that can fly below the THAAD engagement altitude (40 km) among North Korean missiles threatening the metropolitan area."

He also argued that early establishment of a Korean-style missile defense system is more effective than additional THAAD deployment, saying, "For altitudes above 40 km, it is desirable to respond with the 'L-SAM (Long-range Surface-to-Air Missile),' known as the 'Korean-style THAAD,'" and added, "While L-SAM is expected to be developed within two years, purchasing THAAD takes more time." L-SAM is considered a core component of the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system.

In response, Director Shin said, "The currently developing L-SAM is expected to be available around 2026, and L-SAM2, which is at the THAAD level, is scheduled for development in 2033," pointing out, "Even if acquired according to the existing plan, the Seoul metropolitan area will remain exposed to North Korean nuclear missile threats for more than 10 years." On the other hand, THAAD can be procured within 2-3 years as an urgent requirement.

Director Shin emphasized, "Currently, in the metropolitan area, only lower-layer defense systems such as Patriot and Cheongung-2 intercept missiles below 20 km altitude, meaning there is only one chance to block North Korean missiles," and added, "If that fails, our citizens living in the metropolitan area will suffer immediate damage, so THAAD should be able to intercept 1-2 more times at altitudes between 40 and 150 km."

Before presenting their opinions, Deputy Director Kim and Director Shin clarified that "these are personal views and not official positions of the camps," dismissing political interpretations. However, in effect, diplomatic and security policy officials from both camps engaged in a proxy battle outside the official arena.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.