Omicron Becoming a Seasonal Flu? Experts Say "It's Still Too Early"

Higher Transmission Rate and More Than Double Fatality Rate Compared to Flu
Number of Home Treatment Patients Approaches 160,000

On the 8th, when the number of new COVID-19 cases remained in the 30,000s for the fourth consecutive day, citizens are receiving rapid antigen tests at a temporary screening clinic in front of Seoul Station. Photo by Moon Honam munonam@

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Chun-hee] As the Omicron variant spreads rapidly and new COVID-19 cases surge, the government has introduced policies closer to phased daily recovery (With Corona), such as reducing the scope of home treatment management and promoting normal school attendance for the new semester, raising expectations for COVID-19 becoming a 'seasonal flu.' However, experts warn that "it is still too early to relax quarantine vigilance" and urge preparations for the imminent peak.

According to the government on the 8th, from the previous day until the 10th, a phased reform of home treatment and isolation methods focusing on high-risk groups is underway. From the new semester next month, an academic operation plan has been announced that, unless 'more than 3% of enrolled students are confirmed' or 'more than 15% are confirmed or quarantined,' normal school attendance will be the principle.

This aligns with the government's earlier mention of a 'transition to a daily quarantine and medical system similar to seasonal flu,' leading to evaluations that the country has reached a preliminary stage toward managing COVID-19 at the level of seasonal flu. Lee Ki-il, the first controller of the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, recently explained, "Even if confirmed cases increase, if severe cases and fatality rates remain stable and the medical system has sufficient capacity, we have decided to gradually lift quarantine regulations and attempt phased daily recovery again."

Respiratory specialty clinic at Han ENT Hospital in Yeoksam-dong, responsible for the COVID-19 home cooperation hospital in Gangnam-gu, Seoul. / Photo by Joint Press Corps

Experts assess that, considering the current situation in Korea, it is still premature to regard COVID-19 as seasonal flu. Professor Jung Jae-hoon of the Department of Preventive Medicine at Gachon University College of Medicine said, "The peak of the epidemic has not yet passed, and the risk level remains higher than that of seasonal flu," adding, "The inevitability lies more in the social capacity becoming unsustainable rather than COVID-19 becoming seasonal flu." Jung Eun-kyung, Commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, also stated at the National Assembly Health and Welfare Committee plenary session the day before, "Ultimately, it will become endemic, but uncertainty remains high," and "The transmissibility is much stronger and the fatality rate is more than twice as high, so it is premature to manage it like seasonal flu."

As of this day, the number of home treatment patients reached 159,169, soaring 8.4 times compared to 18,934 on the 8th of last month. This exceeds the government's suggested manageable threshold of 150,000 home treatment patients. Given the characteristics of the Omicron variant, even if confirmed cases surge, the high proportion of mild or asymptomatic cases means limited medical resources will be concentrated on high-risk groups such as the elderly aged 60 and over, immunocompromised individuals, and patients in their 50s with underlying conditions, as a desperate measure to overcome the crisis.

Professor Baek Soon-young, emeritus professor at the Catholic University College of Medicine, said, "While the possibility of Omicron becoming seasonal flu is high, if the current epidemic is not controlled, a crisis may arise," and pointed out, "Now is not the time to send messages about easing quarantine." He added, "The focus on home treatment management is the right direction, but if detailed preparations are completely lacking as they are now, it could become 'home neglect.' It is necessary to significantly increase the number of high-priority groups such as pregnant women and ensure that general patients have basic equipment like thermometers and pulse oximeters, preparing more meticulously for the transition."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.