$800 Million Oil Trades Just Before Trump Announcement... U.S. Authorities Launch Investigation

U.S. authorities have launched an investigation into a surge in crude oil futures trading that occurred just before a social media post by U.S. President Donald Trump in March.

AP Yonhap News

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 20th (local time) that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is looking into a spike in crude oil futures trades worth more than $800 million in March.

On the morning of March 23, just before President Donald Trump announced on social media that he would delay an attack on energy infrastructure in Tehran, Iran, trading activity in the after-hours oil futures market surged. According to LSEG data, more than $800 million in U.S. and international crude oil futures were traded within just a few minutes.

Following President Trump's policy reversal, U.S. oil prices plunged by as much as 13%. Traders who made bets at this precise timing profited as a result. According to trading records reviewed by WSJ, at least five firms that traded crude oil futures that day each made profits of more than $5 million, based on the average price reflecting trading volumes.

According to documents and sources cited by WSJ, the CFTC is examining at least three firms as part of this investigation. First, London-based investment firm Qube Research & Technologies made a profit of around $5 million on an adjusted basis from the trades. Forza Fund earned a net profit of approximately $10 million. TotalEnergies' trading unit, Totcha, gained about $200,000.

However, WSJ noted that there is no indication that these firms are suspected of wrongdoing, nor is it clear why the CFTC is focusing on them. Investigators are scrutinizing an opaque and complex part of the market dominated by algorithmic trading. It is difficult to determine the motivation behind individual trades, and the line between luck and skill can be blurred.

Qube explained that its investment decisions are model-based and continuously incorporate diverse data, rather than being driven by specific geopolitical statements or news. TotalEnergies stated that it is not aware of any CFTC investigation into Totcha's crude oil trading activities and that it enforces a zero-tolerance policy for illegal conduct. A representative from MetaBit Trading, a Chinese firm linked to Forza Fund, said that it had not been contacted by the CFTC.

According to people familiar with the investigation, some firms contacted by the CFTC cited a Semaphore news report, released about 15 minutes before President Trump's Truth Social post, as the basis for their trading decisions. The article, published by Semaphore at 6:50 a.m., was 111 words long and titled "As attacks continue, White House weighs Iran war exit."

WSJ also reported that the CFTC is investigating other cases. According to sources, the CFTC is looking into several suspicious trading incidents related to Iran-related announcements in April and May. Dow Jones market data shows that on the 6th of this month, about $700 million worth of crude oil futures were traded roughly one hour before news broke about negotiations to end the Iran war.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.